Brazil

Group C · 0 pts · 0 played

The deep dive — The Ancelotti experiment

More attacking talent than anyone — Vinícius, Rodrygo, Raphinha, Endrick, Estêvão — and now Ancelotti to organise it, the first foreign manager Brazil have ever really trusted and the most decorated knockout coach alive. Qualifying was the worst campaign in Brazil's history, which has had one useful side effect: for the first time in living memory, nobody expects much from a five-time champion.

Outright market

around 8/1 to 9/1

A proper volatility price: short enough to respect the talent, big enough to admit Ancelotti still has a midfield problem to solve.

Why they can win it

Ancelotti has spent thirty years winning knockout football with squads full of stars. This is literally the job he was hired for.
On pure talent the front line is the best at the tournament.
The conditions are home comforts: heat, travel, Americas crowds. European rivals pay a tax Brazil never see.
Brazil with low expectations are historically the dangerous version. Opponents actually come out and play against them.

Why they can't

There's no controller in midfield. Brazil can be pressed into chaos, and you don't win eight straight games in chaos.
The defence picks itself by elimination rather than form, and the fullback production line has slowed to a trickle.
Group C is the hardest any contender drew. Finish second behind Morocco and the bracket turns nasty immediately.

Key man

Vinícius. When he plays direct and angry, Brazil look like champions. When he sulks, the whole side catches it.

X-factor

Estêvão. Eighteen and completely unbothered. Knockout defences hate the player they have no file on.

Verdict: The widest range of outcomes of any big side — a quarter-final exit and a sixth star are both completely believable. Which is exactly what makes the price interesting.