Match preview
Brazil enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 66% chance. Scotland likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Brazil are favourites (66%)
- Brazil carry the higher Elo rating (294 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Scotland mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Brazil won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 19% / 15% / 66% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Brazil are expected to control possession and territory, while Scotland will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Brazil goal would force Scotland to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Scotland 0.6 · Brazil 2
Quick stats
Scotland — last 5
- Lv Slovenia1–2
- W@ FYR Macedonia2–0
- Lv Switzerland0–3
- D@ Slovenia0–0
- Lv Brazil0–3
Brazil — last 5
- W@ India4–0
- W@ Australia4–2
- D@ Australia1–1
- Lv Norway1–2
- Wv Japan2–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Alisson G
- 13Danilo D
- 4Marquinhos D
- 3Gabriel D
- 16Douglas Santos D
- 8Bruno Guimaraes M
- 5Casemiro M
- 20Lucas Paqueta M
- 26Rayan F
- 9M. Cunha F
- 7Vinicius Junior F
- 1A. Gunn G
- 22N. Patterson D
- 13J. Hendry D
- 26S. McKenna D
- 3A. Robertson D
- 19L. Ferguson M
- 23K. McLean M
- 17B. Gannon-Doak M
- 4S. McTominay M
- 7J. McGinn M
- 20L. Shankland F
Key matchups
Scotland's focal point in attack against the heart of Brazil's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Brazil's main outlet — how Scotland's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.