Match preview
Brazil are favourites on ratings but Morocco have been the in-form side. Closer than the badges suggest.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Brazil are favourites (48%)
- Brazil carry the higher Elo rating (+81 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Brazil won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Morocco mixed recent form (2W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 48% / 21% / 31% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Brazil should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Brazil 1.6 · Morocco 1
Quick stats
Brazil — last 5
- W@ India4–0
- W@ Australia4–2
- D@ Australia1–1
- Lv Norway1–2
- Wv Japan2–1
Morocco — last 5
- Dv Ghana?–?
- Dv Mali1–1
- W@ Lesotho2–0
- Wv Gabon2–0
- L@ France0–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Alisson G
- 24Ibanez D
- 4Marquinhos D
- 3Gabriel D
- 16Douglas Santos D
- 5Casemiro M
- 8Bruno Guimaraes M
- 20Lucas Paqueta M
- 11Raphinha M
- 7Vinicius Junior M
- 25I. Thiago F
- 1Bono G
- 2A. Hakimi D
- 14I. Diop D
- 18C. Riad D
- 3N. Mazraoui D
- 24N. El Aynaoui M
- 6A. Bouaddi M
- 10B. Diaz M
- 8A. Ounahi M
- 23B. El Khannouss M
- 11I. Saibari F
Key matchups
Brazil's focal point in attack against the heart of Morocco's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Morocco's main outlet — how Brazil's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.