Match preview
Brazil are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 55%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Morocco a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Brazil are favourites (55%)
- Brazil carry the higher Elo rating (+141 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Brazil unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Morocco unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 55% / 19% / 26% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Brazil are expected to control possession and territory, while Morocco will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Brazil goal would force Morocco to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Brazil 1.8 · Morocco 0.8
Quick stats
Brazil — last 5
- Wv Japan2–1
- W@ Scotland3–0
- Wv Haiti3–0
- Dv Morocco1–1
- Wv Egypt2–1
Morocco — last 5
- D@ Netherlands1–1
- Wv Haiti4–2
- W@ Scotland1–0
- D@ Brazil1–1
- Dv Norway1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Alisson G
- 24Ibanez D
- 4Marquinhos D
- 3Gabriel D
- 16Douglas Santos D
- 5Casemiro M
- 8Bruno Guimaraes M
- 20Lucas Paqueta M
- 11Raphinha M
- 7Vinicius Junior M
- 25I. Thiago F
- 1Bono G
- 2A. Hakimi D
- 14I. Diop D
- 18C. Riad D
- 3N. Mazraoui D
- 24N. El Aynaoui M
- 6A. Bouaddi M
- 10B. Diaz M
- 8A. Ounahi M
- 23B. El Khannouss M
- 11I. Saibari F
Key matchups
Brazil's focal point in attack against the heart of Morocco's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Morocco's main outlet — how Brazil's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.