Previews & analysis
The outright market, all twelve groups, six contender deep dives and the angles the other hubs don't bother with.
The big reads
Spain and France head the market. The model still has Argentina top. Here is the pre-tournament outright read, without pretending 9/2 shots are certainties.
Twelve groups, a round of 32 and eight third-placed qualifiers. The new format changes who advances, how favourites manage squads, and where the betting edges are.
Three countries, four time zones, two climates and one 2,240-metre plateau. The conditions will decide matches at this World Cup, and the market mostly ignores them.
Beyond the big six: five teams with a real route deep into the tournament, and the obvious reason each one might fall short.
Mbappé and Kane are short for a reason. Haaland is the awkward one. The rest depends on penalties, minutes and who gets a soft round of 32.
Contender deep dives
What each of the top six brings, why they can win it — and why they can't.
The model's top seed and the rational favourite. If the old legs survive eight games, the temperament takes care of the rest.
The most complete squad here. The group is a trap, but once France are in the knockouts nobody wants the fixture.
The bookies' favourite and the model's number two. If Rodri plays all eight games Spain probably win it. That 'if' is the entire bet.
The widest range of outcomes of any big side — a quarter-final exit and a sixth star are both completely believable. Which is exactly what makes the price interesting.
The best-equipped England side of the modern era, with the right manager profile for once. Top-three contenders. The heat is the quiet worry.
The sneaky outright pick. Less aura than the big four, better balance than most of them, and nobody has an easier road to the last eight.
Group previews
Mexico win it, Korea second, Czechs sneak through as a best third.
Canada and Switzerland through, Canada fancied for top spot at home.
Brazil and Morocco, with Scotland in the third-place mix.
USA edge it, Türkiye second. Low confidence on both.
Germany then Ecuador. Ivory Coast a decent shout for a third-place spot.
Netherlands and Japan, Sweden the strongest third-placed side in the tournament.
Belgium first, Egypt second, Iran the nuisance if anyone slips.
Spain and Uruguay, order settled on matchday three.
France, Norway, and Senegal through in third regardless.
Argentina stroll it, Austria second.
Portugal and Colombia, comfortably.
England top it, Croatia join them.