Match preview
Brazil are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 65%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Haiti a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Brazil are favourites (65%)
- Brazil carry the higher Elo rating (+394 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Brazil won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Haiti won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 65% / 16% / 19% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Brazil are expected to control possession and territory, while Haiti will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Brazil goal would force Haiti to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Brazil 2 · Haiti 0.6
Quick stats
Brazil — last 5
- W@ India4–0
- W@ Australia4–2
- D@ Australia1–1
- Lv Norway1–2
- Wv Japan2–1
Haiti — last 5
- L@ Costa Rica0–2
- W@ Dominican Republic4–1
- Wv Costa Rica2–0
- Wv Trinidad and Tobago3–2
- L@ Morocco2–4
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Alisson G
- 13Danilo D
- 4Marquinhos D
- 3Gabriel D
- 16Douglas Santos D
- 8Bruno Guimaraes M
- 5Casemiro M
- 20Lucas Paqueta M
- 11Raphinha F
- 9M. Cunha F
- 7Vinicius Junior F
- 1J. Placide G
- 2C. Arcus D
- 22J. Duverne D
- 4R. Ade D
- 5H. Delcroix D
- 8M. Experience D
- 21J. Casimir M
- 17D. Jean Jacques M
- 10J. Bellegarde M
- 15R. Providence M
- 20F. Pierrot F
Key matchups
Brazil's focal point in attack against the heart of Haiti's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Haiti's main outlet — how Brazil's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.