Match preview
Brazil are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 55%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Japan a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Brazil are favourites (55%)
- Brazil carry the higher Elo rating (+170 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Brazil won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Japan mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 55% / 19% / 26% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Brazil are expected to control possession and territory, while Japan will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Brazil goal would force Japan to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Brazil 1.8 · Japan 0.8
Quick stats
Brazil — last 5
- W@ Australia4–2
- D@ Australia1–1
- Lv Norway1–2
- Wv Japan2–1
- W@ Scotland3–0
Japan — last 5
- Dv Ecuador0–0
- Wv Venezuela2–1
- Wv Uruguay3–1
- L@ Brazil1–2
- Dv Sweden1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Alisson G
- 13Danilo D
- 4Marquinhos D
- 3Gabriel D
- 16Douglas Santos D
- 8Bruno Guimaraes M
- 5Casemiro M
- 20Lucas Paqueta M
- 26Rayan F
- 9M. Cunha F
- 7Vinicius Junior F
- 1Z. Suzuki G
- 22T. Tomiyasu D
- 3S. Taniguchi D
- 21H. Ito D
- 10R. Doan M
- 24K. Sano M
- 15D. Kamada M
- 13K. Nakamura M
- 14J. Ito F
- 11D. Maeda F
- 18A. Ueda F
Key matchups
Brazil's focal point in attack against the heart of Japan's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Japan's main outlet — how Brazil's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.