Portugal

Group K · 5 pts · 3 played

The deep dive — Deeper than the headline

Take Ronaldo out of the conversation for a second and look at the squad: Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo, Vitinha, João Neves, Leão, Cancelo, Nuno Mendes, Rúben Dias, Gonçalo Ramos. Position for position it's arguably the deepest group at the tournament. Winning the 2025 Nations League finally killed the 'talented bottlers' line, and the draw gave them the easiest contender route in the bracket.

Outright market

around 8/1 to 19/2

The cleanest route-and-price blend among the elite. If Martínez manages Ronaldo honestly, this is the one that can still look too big.

Why they can win it

Vitinha, João Neves and Bruno Fernandes can control midfield against anybody here.
Group K plus a likely soft round of 32 means Portugal can reach a quarter-final having barely broken sweat. Fresh legs in week four win tournaments.
Martínez has finally won something with this group, which changes the mood of the whole camp.
The best fullback collection at the tournament, and modern knockout football is decided by fullbacks more than anyone admits.

Why they can't

Ronaldo is 41 and no longer presses, and nobody knows whether Martínez has the nerve to manage his minutes honestly when it actually matters.
Before 2025, Martínez's knockout record was a long list of talented squads going out softly. One Nations League doesn't erase all of it.
The easy road cuts both ways: the first elite team Portugal meet might be the first real test they have faced in a month.

Key man

Vitinha. The metronome who turns all that talent into structure. His fitness matters as much as anyone's in the squad.

X-factor

Gonçalo Ramos. Scored a hat-trick on his first World Cup start in 2022. If Martínez ever makes the brave call up front, the replacement is already proven.

Verdict: The sneaky outright pick. Less aura than the big four, better balance than most of them, and nobody has an easier road to the last eight.