Match preview
Portugal edge it on ratings AND form has been the better of the two going in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Portugal are favourites (52%)
- Portugal carry the higher Elo rating (+102 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Portugal unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Croatia won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 52% / 20% / 28% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Portugal should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Portugal 1.7 · Croatia 0.9
Quick stats
Portugal — last 5
- Wv Croatia2–1
- D@ Colombia0–0
- Wv Uzbekistan5–0
- Dv Congo DR1–1
- Wv Nigeria2–1
Croatia — last 5
- L@ Portugal1–2
- Wv Ghana2–1
- W@ Panama1–0
- L@ England2–4
- Wv Slovenia2–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Diogo Costa G
- 20João Cancelo D
- 3Rúben Dias D
- 13Renato Veiga D
- 25Nuno Mendes D
- 15João Neves M
- 23Vitinha M
- 18Pedro Neto M
- 8Bruno Fernandes M
- 17Rafael Leão M
- 7Cristiano Ronaldo F
- 1Dominik Livaković G
- 2Josip Stanišić D
- 6Josip Šutalo D
- 3Marin Pongračić D
- 14Ivan Perišić D
- 10Luka Modrić M
- 8Mateo Kovačić M
- 13Nikola Vlašić M
- 17Petar Sučić M
- 16Martin Baturina M
- 11Ante Budimir F
Key matchups
Portugal's focal point in attack against the heart of Croatia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Croatia's main outlet — how Portugal's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.