Ladies Day | Wednesday 11th March 2026 | 1:20pm | 2m5f Grade 1 Novice Hurdle
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase
The Turners Novices' Hurdle 2026 trends show this is a race dominated by short-priced favourites. Formerly known as the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle, this 2m5f Grade 1 tests stamina and class in equal measure. Significantly, horses priced between 1/2 and 10/11 have a perfect 100% strike rate, making this a "trust the market" race. When analysing the Turners Novices Hurdle 2026, the Deloitte Novice Hurdle emerges as the dominant trial path.
✅ Key Finding
Horses priced 1/2 to 10/11: 4/4 (100% win rate). Short-priced favourites don't lose this race!
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Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 Ante-Post Market
No Drama This End heads the market after his impressive Challow win. However, The Yellow Clay is NOT in the market - suggesting he may target the Albert Bartlett or go chasing instead.
| Horse | Trainer | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Drama This End | Paul Nicholls | 7/2 | Won Challow (4/9F) - BUT 5yo = 3%, Nicholls 0/3, Cobden 0/5! |
| Saint Baco | - | 10/1 | Market mover |
| El Cairos | - | 12/1 | Drifting in market |
| Old Park Star | - | 12/1 | - |
| Sortudo | - | 12/1 | - |
| Ballyfad | - | 14/1 | - |
| Doctor Du Mesnil | - | 16/1 | - |
| Lazare De Star | - | 16/1 | - |
| Idaho Sun | - | 16/1 | - |
| Skylight Hustle | - | 14/1 | - |
| King Rasko Grey | - | 20/1 | - |
| Bambino Fever | - | 20/1 | - |
⚠️ Key Observation: The Yellow Clay (won Slaney, 2nd 2025 Turners) is NOT in this market. He may be targeting the Albert Bartlett (3m) or going chasing like Final Demand. This changes the dynamic significantly - No Drama This End is clear favourite but ticks NONE of the winning trend boxes (5yo, Nicholls, Cobden all poor).
Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 Trial Paths
The Deloitte Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown dominates this race's history. Moreover, 6 of the last 11 winners came through the Deloitte, making it the essential trial to follow. The Classic Novices Hurdle and Leamington are secondary but productive paths.
| Previous Race | Winners | P/L | 2025/26 Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) | 6 | +13.66 | Kopek Des Bordes (4/5F) - won 13L |
| Classic Novices Hurdle (Cheltenham) | 2 | +23.5 | Sixmilebridge (9/1) - won 8.5L |
| Leamington Novices Hurdle (Warwick) | 2 | +22.5 | TBC (Jan 2026) |
| Slaney Novice Hurdle (Naas) | 2 | +2.07 | The Yellow Clay (11/4) |
| Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle | 2 | +5 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Leopardstown G1 2m6f (Jan) | 1 | +8.5 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Challow Novices Hurdle (Newbury) | 1 | +3 | No Drama This End (4/9F) |
| Sidney Banks Memorial | 1 | +2 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Non-compiled races | 4 | 0 | Under the radar routes |
💡 Key Insight: The Deloitte Novice Hurdle (DRF weekend, Leopardstown) is THE dominant trial - 6 winners including Ballyburn (2024), Sir Gerhard (2022), Envoi Allen (2020), and Samcro (2018). Therefore, whoever wins the 2026 Deloitte demands serious respect for the Turners.
Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 Profiler Sweet Spots
| Factor | Sweet Spot | Wins/Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds Bracket | 1/2 to 10/11 | 4/4 | 100% | +2.53 |
| Odds Bracket | 5/2 to 4/1 | 3/10 | 30% | +1.5 |
| Odds Bracket | 14/1+ | 1/71 | 1% | -56 |
| Market Position | Favourite | 5/11 | 45% | -1.97 |
| Market Position | Top 3 in market | 9/35 | 26% | -8.97 |
| Market Position | 6th+ favourite | 0/47 | 0% | -47 |
| Age | 6yo | 9/70 | 13% | -25.2 |
| Age | 7yo | 1/13 | 8% | -11.27 |
| Age | 5yo | 1/39 | 3% | -35.5 |
| Previous Finish | Won LTO | 10/66 | 15% | -21.47 |
| Previous Finish | 2nd LTO | 1/31 | 3% | -25.5 |
| Days Since Run | 31-60 days | 7/78 | 9% | -40.04 |
| Days Since Run | 61-90 days | 4/28 | 14% | -15.93 |
| Season Runs | 3 runs this season | 8/36 | 22% | -3.97 |
| OR Range | OR 147 | 3/7 | 43% | +21 |
| OR Range | OR 155+ | 4/6 | 67% | +4.3 |
Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 Trainer Records
Willie Mullins has the most winners but poor value at the prices. Gordon Elliott offers better strike rate. Interestingly, the smaller British yards have had occasional success at bigger prices.
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Mullins | 4 | 36 | 11% | -25.27 |
| Gordon Elliott | 2 | 10 | 20% | -6.7 |
| Henry de Bromhead | 1 | 5 | 20% | -2.5 |
| Daniel Skelton | 1 | 6 | 17% | -2 |
| Ben Pauling | 1 | 6 | 17% | +9 |
| Martin Brassil | 1 | 2 | 50% | +7 |
| Nicky Henderson | 0 | 9 | 0% | -9 |
| Paul Nicholls | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
| N Twiston-Davies | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
Jockey Records
| Jockey | Wins | Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Townend | 3 | 11 | 27% | -4.27 |
| Davy Russell | 2 | 7 | 29% | +0.07 |
| Jack Kennedy | 1 | 4 | 25% | -2.27 |
| Rachael Blackmore | 1 | 4 | 25% | -1.5 |
| Harry Skelton | 1 | 5 | 20% | -1 |
| David Bass | 1 | 2 | 50% | +13 |
| Harry Cobden | 0 | 5 | 0% | -5 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
Turners Novices Hurdle 2025 Result
🏆 Turners Novices' Hurdle 2025
1st: The New Lion (3/1) - Skelton/H Skelton - 6yo, OR 147 - held up, closed 3 out, switched before last, led final 100yds
2nd: The Yellow Clay (5/2) - Elliott/Kennedy - 6yo, OR 149 - led after 2 out, joined before last, headed final 100yds, 0.75L
3rd: Final Demand (6/4F) - Mullins/Townend - 6yo, OR 154 - in touch, challenged 2 out, 3rd no extra, 5.5L
4th: Forty Coats (150/1) - de Bromhead - stayed on for 4th
5th: Potters Charm (12/1) - Twiston-Davies - led after 3 out, headed 2 out, weakened
The New Lion came from the Challow where he won at 9/4. Tight finish with The Yellow Clay (Slaney winner).
Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 Key Trial Form
Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, 2 Feb 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: Kopek Des Bordes (4/5F) - Mullins/Townend - 5yo - tracked leaders, led after 3 out, impressive 13L win
2nd: Karniquet (16/1) - Mullins/P Mullins - stayed on from rear, 13L 2nd
3rd: Good And Clever (16/1) - Greatrex - kept on one pace
🎯 KEY TRIAL: Kopek Des Bordes was hugely impressive but likely targets the Supreme (2m). If he goes Turners instead, he's the one to beat - BUT 5yo = only 3% win rate historically!
Slaney Novice Hurdle (Naas, 5 Jan 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: The Yellow Clay (11/4) - Elliott/Ewing - 6yo, OR 142 - travelled well to lead 2 out, stayed on well, comfortably by 8L
2nd: Supersundae (6/1) - Mullins - kept on same pace
3rd: Wingmen (16/1) - Elliott - led, headed 2 out, kept on
The Yellow Clay won this trial then went on to finish 2nd in the 2025 Turners (beaten <1L). Key trial match.
Classic Novices Hurdle (Cheltenham, 25 Jan 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: Sixmilebridge (9/1) - F O'Brien/Woods - 6yo, OR 128 - led, rallied after 2 out, stayed on well by 8.5L
2nd: Potters Charm (8/15F) - Twiston-Davies - tracked leading pair, no chance with winner
3rd: Bill Joyce (6/1) - J O'Neill - tracked leader, led 2 out, no extra
Sixmilebridge upset the odds-on favourite Potters Charm. However, Sixmilebridge then finished 9th in the 2025 Turners.
Challow Novices Hurdle (Newbury, 29 Dec 2025) ✅ RUN
1st: No Drama This End (4/9F) - Nicholls/Cobden - 5yo, OR 143 - disputed lead, went clear 2 out, readily
2nd: Klimt Madrik (9/1) - Lawes - in touch, kept on for 2nd
3rd: Tiptoptim (12/1) - Snowden - disputed 2nd, kept on
No Drama This End was impressive BUT he's a 5yo - historically 5yo horses have just 3% win rate (1/39) in the Turners!
Leopardstown G1 2m7.5f (28 Dec 2025)
Key for Turners: The Yellow Clay 5th (4/1), beaten 33L - mid-division, progress in 3rd after 7th, dropped to 5th before 2 out, weakened before last.
Winner: TBC (for Stayers' Hurdle type)
⚠️ CONCERN: The Yellow Clay disappointed badly here. He was well beaten in a race that should have suited. Questions about his current form.
Trials Still To Run
- Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown, Feb 2026) - THE key trial: 6 winners 🔥
- Leamington Novices Hurdle (Warwick, Jan 2026) - 2 winners, +22.5 P/L
- Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Punchestown, Feb 2026) - 2 winners
- Sidney Banks Memorial (Huntingdon, Feb 2026) - 1 winner
- Leopardstown G1 2m6f (Feb 2026) - 1 winner
Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 Betting Strategy
✅ DO
- Back 1/2 to 10/11 shots (100%!)
- Follow Deloitte winners (6 wins)
- Focus on 6yo horses (13%)
- Target OR 147+ horses
- Trust Gordon Elliott (20%)
- Look for 3 runs this season
❌ AVOID
- 5yo horses (3% win rate!)
- 6th+ favourite (0/47)
- 14/1+ outsiders (1/71)
- Paul Nicholls (0/3)
- Harry Cobden (0/5)
- 2nd LTO horses (3%)
Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 Contenders
| Horse | Odds | Fits Trends? |
|---|---|---|
| No Drama This End | 7/2 | ❌ Won Challow BUT: 5yo = 3% win rate, Nicholls 0/3, Cobden 0/5 - THREE red flags! |
| Saint Baco | 10/1 | ⚠️ Market mover - need trial path data |
| El Cairos | 12/1 | ⚠️ Drifting - need form data |
| Sortudo | 12/1 | ⚠️ Need trial path data |
| Ballyfad | 14/1 | ⚠️ Need trial path data |
| 2026 Deloitte Winner | TBC | 🎯 Wait for DRF weekend - Deloitte winner = 6 Turners wins! |
⚠️ No Drama This End - Major Red Flags
Despite being 7/2 favourite, No Drama This End ticks NONE of the winning trend boxes:
• 5yo = 3% win rate (1/39 in last 25 years)
• Paul Nicholls = 0/3 (no winners)
• Harry Cobden = 0/5 (no winners)
This is a classic "false favourite" situation. Wait for the Deloitte winner at DRF weekend!
💡 Bottom Line: The Turners Novices Hurdle 2026 market is dominated by No Drama This End (7/2) but he's a classic "false favourite" - his 5yo status (3% win rate), plus Nicholls (0/3) and Cobden (0/5) mean he ticks NONE of the winning trend boxes. The Yellow Clay isn't even in the market (likely Albert Bartlett or chasing). WAIT for the Deloitte at DRF weekend - that trial has produced 6 Turners winners. The Deloitte winner, IF they're a 6yo, becomes the automatic bet here. Otherwise, this looks a race to oppose the favourite.
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Data source: HorseRaceBase Big Race Trends | Last updated: January 2026 | See also: Racing Post Cheltenham Guide
Related: Supreme Novices Trends | Albert Bartlett Trends | DRF Cheltenham Guide | Festival Hub
