Ladies Day | Wednesday 11th March 2026 | 2:00pm | 3m½f Grade 1 Novice Chase
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase
The Brown Advisory Chase 2026 trends reveal a race dominated by one key trial - the Leopardstown Grade 1 Novice Chase at the Dublin Racing Festival. This staying test over 3m½f separates the future Gold Cup contenders from the pretenders. Significantly, 7 of the last 11 winners came through the Leopardstown DRF trial, making it an essential race to follow when analysing the Brown Advisory Chase 2026 betting.
✅ Key Finding
Leopardstown G1 2m5f (DRF weekend): 7 winners, +38.5 P/L. THE dominant trial for this race!
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Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 Ante-Post Market
Final Demand heads the market as clear favourite after his impressive switch to chasing. The former Turners 3rd won his beginners chase at Navan before landing the Limerick G1 over Christmas. He ticks multiple trend boxes - Mullins-trained (17% strike rate) and favourites win 55% of this race.
| Horse | Trainer | Odds | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final Demand | Willie Mullins | Evens | 3rd Turners 2025, won Limerick G1 Chase Dec 2025 - ticks all trend boxes! |
| Romeo Coolio | - | 6/1 | Second favourite |
| Kitzbuhel | - | 7/1 | Market mover |
| The Big Westerner | - | 10/1 | - |
| Koktail Divin | - | 16/1 | - |
| Wendigo | - | 16/1 | 2nd Challow 2024 (behind The New Lion) |
| Jimmy Du Seuil | - | 16/1 | - |
| El Clavel | - | 16/1 | - |
| Kaid dAuthie | Mullins | 25/1 | Was in 2025 Turners (PU), Mullins second string |
| Gameofinches | - | 25/1 | - |
| Sixmilebridge | Fergal O'Brien | 25/1 | Won Classic 2025, 9th Turners 2025 |
| Potters Charm | N Twiston-Davies | 33/1 | 5th Turners 2025, 4th Long Walk Dec 2025 |
✅ Final Demand Ticks The Boxes: Mullins-trained (17% win rate), will be 7yo (prime age), evens favourite (55% win rate for favourites), and came through a Grade 1 chase win. His form figures over fences: 1-1 (won Limerick G1 Dec 2025 by 8L). He's the standout trending contender.
Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 Trial Paths
The Leopardstown Grade 1 Novice Chase at DRF weekend is THE dominant trial for this race. Moreover, 7 of the last 11 winners came through this route, generating an exceptional +38.5 P/L. The Reynoldstown at Ascot and the December Leopardstown G1 are secondary options.
| Previous Race | Winners | P/L | 2024/25 Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leopardstown G1 2m5f (DRF) | 7 | +38.5 | Ballyburn 8/13F (then 5th Brown Advisory) |
| Reynoldstown (Ascot) | 3 | +20.5 | The Changing Man 7/2 (won 24L) |
| Dipper Novices Chase | 2 | +12 | DISCONTINUED (2024) |
| December G1 3m (Leopardstown) | 1 | +1.63 | Croke Park 7/2 |
| Killiney Novice Chase (Jan) | 1 | +20 | TBC (Jan 2026) |
| Feltham Novices Chase | 1 | +4 | TBC (Dec 2025) |
| Towton Novices Chase | 1 | +8 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Scilly Isles Novice Chase | 1 | +2.25 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Red Mills Chase | 1 | +2.5 | Classic Getaway 9/2 |
| Non-compiled races | 7 | 0 | Under the radar routes (2025 winner Lecky Watson) |
💡 Key Insight: The Leopardstown G1 2m5f at DRF weekend (Feb) is the DOMINANT trial - 7 winners including Fact To File (2024), Monkfish (2021), Galopin Des Champs (2022 winner of DRF trial). Therefore, the 2026 DRF G1 winner demands serious respect. Note: 2025 winner Lecky Watson came from a non-compiled race (Punchestown G3), showing upsets are possible.
Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 Profiler Sweet Spots
| Factor | Sweet Spot | Wins/Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market Position | Favourite | 6/11 | 55% | +5.75 |
| Market Position | 3rd favourite | 3/12 | 25% | +7 |
| Market Position | 6th favourite | 1/12 | 8% | +9 |
| Market Position | 2nd favourite | 0/11 | 0% | -11 |
| Age | 7yo | 8/57 | 14% | -3.38 |
| Age | 8yo | 2/20 | 10% | -10.5 |
| Age | 6yo | 1/18 | 6% | -15.37 |
| Previous Finish | Won LTO | 8/55 | 15% | -2.75 |
| Previous Finish | 2nd LTO | 2/14 | 14% | -5.5 |
| Odds Bracket | 13/8 to 9/4 | 2/3 | 67% | +2.88 |
| Odds Bracket | 5/2 to 4/1 | 4/12 | 33% | +6 |
| Days Since Run | 61-90 days | 4/20 | 20% | +1.63 |
| Days Since Run | 31-60 days | 6/59 | 10% | -18.38 |
| Season Runs | 3 runs this season | 6/29 | 21% | +11.5 |
| OR Range | OR 152-153 | 3/19 | 16% | +16 |
| OR Range | OR 159+ | 3/6 | 50% | +1.12 |
Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 Trainer Records
Willie Mullins dominates with 4 winners, though Elliott has had strong placed horses. Interestingly, smaller yards have also struck at big prices - Patrick Neville (The Real Whacker, 8/1) and Venetia Williams (L'Homme Presse, 9/4).
| Trainer | Wins | Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Mullins | 4 | 23 | 17% | +3.5 |
| Nicky Henderson | 2 | 10 | 20% | -0.5 |
| Paul Nicholls | 1 | 6 | 17% | -1 |
| Patrick Neville | 1 | 1 | 100% | +8 |
| Venetia Williams | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.25 |
| N Twiston-Davies | 1 | 3 | 33% | +6 |
| Gordon Elliott | 0 | 9 | 0% | -9 |
| Henry de Bromhead | 0 | 7 | 0% | -7 |
| Colin Tizzard | 0 | 8 | 0% | -8 |
⚠️ Elliott 0/9: Gordon Elliott has never won the Brown Advisory despite sending multiple quality runners. His horses placed 2nd-3rd in 2025 (Stellar Story, Better Days Ahead) but couldn't land the prize. This is a significant negative for his 2026 contenders.
Jockey Records
| Jockey | Wins | Runs | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean O'Keeffe | 1 | 3 | 33% | +18 |
| Sam Twiston-Davies | 1 | 5 | 20% | +4 |
| Charlie Deutsch | 1 | 1 | 100% | +2.25 |
| Mark Walsh | 1 | 3 | 33% | -1.38 |
| Harry Cobden | 1 | 5 | 20% | 0 |
| Paul Townend | 1 | 7 | 14% | -5.75 |
| Jack Kennedy | 0 | 3 | 0% | -3 |
Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2025 Result
🏆 Brown Advisory Novices' Chase 2025 - SHOCK!
1st: Lecky Watson (20/1) - Mullins/S O'Keeffe - 7yo, OR 152 - chased leaders, led 3 out, clear flat, stayed on well
2nd: Stellar Story (22/1) - Elliott/Gilligan - 8yo, OR 151 - held up, stayed on approaching last, 4L
3rd: Better Days Ahead (13/2) - Elliott/Kennedy - 7yo, OR 152 - prominent, ridden after 2 out, HD 3rd
4th: Gorgeous Tom (11/1) - de Bromhead - outpaced after 3 out
5th: Ballyburn (4/7F) - Mullins/Townend - bad mistake 7th, never recovered, SH 5th
6th: Dancing City (8/1) - Mullins - led, headed 3 out, soon lost place
20/1 upset! Ballyburn's bad mistake 7th cost him any chance. Lecky Watson came from a non-compiled route (Punchestown G3 in Jan).
Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 Key Trial Form
Leopardstown G1 2m5f (DRF Feb 2025) - KEY TRIAL ✅
1st: Ballyburn (8/13F) - Mullins/Townend - 7yo - tracked leader, led 2 out, strongly pressed, regained lead final furlong, 5L win
2nd: Croke Park (11/1) - Elliott/Ewing - 7yo - tracked leader, headway after 2 out, led at last, headed final furlong, 5L
3rd: Impaire Et Passe (11/4) - Mullins/Slevin - 7yo - held up, kept on one pace 3rd
🎯 KEY TRIAL: This race has produced 7 Brown Advisory winners. Ballyburn won but flopped in the Brown Advisory (5th). Croke Park is now the leading contender for 2026 - he ran well behind Ballyburn and stays in training over fences.
December G1 3m (Leopardstown, 26 Dec 2024)
1st: Croke Park (7/2) - Elliott/Ewing - 6yo - led, headed, led again 10th, just held on close home by HD
2nd: Better Days Ahead (10/11F) - Elliott/Gilligan - just failed close home, HD
3rd: Buddy One (11/1) - 19L 3rd
4th: Stellar Story (11/4) - bad mistake 10th, weakened
Elliott 1-2 in December but they couldn't land the Brown Advisory (2nd and 3rd). Croke Park showed his staying power here.
Reynoldstown Novices Chase (Ascot, 15 Feb 2025)
1st: The Changing Man (7/2) - Tizzard/Powell - 8yo, OR 138 - made all, went clear, coasted home by 24L
2nd: Leave Of Absence (14/1) - 24L
3rd: Peaky Boy (11/2) - tailed off
UR: Jingko Blue (8/13F) - slipped and unseated 3rd
The Changing Man was impressive but this was a weak renewal after Jingko Blue's early exit. Trail has produced 3 Brown Advisory winners.
Red Mills Chase (Gowran Park, 15 Feb 2025)
1st: Classic Getaway (9/2) - Mullins/D Mullins - 9yo, OR 151 - tracked, led before 2 out, comfortably by 6L
2nd: Saint Sam (2/5F) - led, headed 2 out, one paced
3rd: Journey With Me (5/1) - weakened before last
Classic Getaway is a veteran now (9yo in 2025) - trail has produced 1 Brown Advisory winner.
Trials Still To Run (2025/26 Season)
- Leopardstown G1 2m5f (DRF, Feb 2026) - THE key trial: 7 winners 🔥🔥🔥
- Reynoldstown Novices Chase (Ascot, Feb 2026) - 3 winners
- Feltham Novices Chase (Kempton, Dec 2025) - 1 winner
- Towton Novices Chase (Wetherby, Feb 2026) - 1 winner
- Scilly Isles Novice Chase (Sandown, Feb 2026) - 1 winner
- Killiney Novice Chase (Leopardstown, Jan 2026) - 1 winner
Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 Betting Strategy
✅ DO
- Back Leopardstown G1 DRF winners (7 wins)
- Back favourites (55% win rate)
- Target 7yo horses (14%)
- Look for 3 runs this season
- Back Mullins runners (17%)
- Target OR 152-153 or 159+
❌ AVOID
- 2nd favourite (0/11!)
- 6yo horses (6% win rate)
- Gordon Elliott (0/9)
- Henry de Bromhead (0/7)
- 16-30 days since run (7%)
- Colin Tizzard (0/8)
Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 Contenders
| Horse | Odds | Fits Trends? |
|---|---|---|
| Final Demand | Evens | ✅ Mullins (17%), 7yo, evens favourite (55% win), Limerick G1 winner - TICKS ALL BOXES |
| Romeo Coolio | 6/1 | ⚠️ 2nd favourite = 0/11 historically! Major concern |
| Kitzbuhel | 7/1 | ⚠️ Need trial path data - 3rd fav has 25% win rate |
| The Big Westerner | 10/1 | ⚠️ Need trial path data |
| Wendigo | 16/1 | ⚠️ Was 2nd Challow 2024, now chasing |
| Sixmilebridge | 25/1 | ⚠️ F O'Brien - won Classic 2025 but 9th Turners - proven limited |
| Potters Charm | 33/1 | ⚠️ Twiston-Davies, 5th Turners 2025 - going chasing |
| 2026 DRF G1 Winner | TBC | 🎯 Watch DRF weekend - Leopardstown G1 winner = 7 Brown Advisory wins! |
✅ Final Demand - The Standout Bet
Final Demand (Evens) ticks every trend box for the Brown Advisory:
• Mullins-trained = 17% win rate (4 wins) ✅
• Will be 7yo = prime age (14% win rate) ✅
• Favourite = 55% win rate ✅
• Grade 1 chase winner = won Limerick G1 Dec 2025 ✅
• NOT Elliott (0/9) ✅
The only question is whether he runs in the DRF trial or goes straight to Cheltenham. Either way, he's the clear trending selection.
💡 Bottom Line: The Brown Advisory Novices Chase 2026 has a clear standout in Final Demand (Evens). He ticks every trend box - Mullins-trained (17%), will be 7yo (prime age), favourite (55% win rate), and already a G1 chase winner at Limerick. Moreover, the 2nd favourite position (Romeo Coolio 6/1) has a 0/11 record historically - that's a huge fade. The only remaining question is whether Final Demand runs in the Leopardstown DRF trial (7 winners from that path) or goes straight to Cheltenham. Either way, Final Demand is the bet - he's not Elliott (0/9), he's Mullins, and he's the favourite. Everything aligns.
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Data source: HorseRaceBase Big Race Trends | Last updated: January 2026 | See also: Racing Post Cheltenham Guide
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