Champion Day | Tuesday 10th March 2026 | 1:20pm | Grade 1, 2m 87y
Last updated: January 2026 | Data source: HorseRaceBase
The Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2026 is the Festival opener, famous for "The Roar" as the tapes rise. Run at a furious pace over 2 miles, this race demands speed, jumping accuracy under pressure, and the ability to handle the unique Cheltenham atmosphere.
💰 Key Angle
Third favourite: 5 wins from 14 = 36% strike rate, +20 profit
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Market Position
The Supreme often throws up surprises. Backing every favourite blind loses money, but there's value elsewhere in the market.
| Position | Wins | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | 4 | 29% | -4.35 |
| 2nd Favourite | 2 | 14% | -6.50 |
| 3rd Favourite | 5 | 36% | +20.00 |
Key Trial Races & Profit
Where do Supreme winners come from? The Deloitte Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival dominates.
| Previous Race | Winners | P/L | 2025/26 Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deloitte Novice Hurdle | 8 | +24.65 | TBC (1 Feb 2026) |
| Johnstown Novice Hurdle | 2 | +37.00 | Race not scheduled? |
| Newbury 2m5f Novice Hurdle | 3 | +35.00 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Formby Novices' Hurdle | 2 | +11.25 | Idaho Sun (3/1) |
| Rossington Main | 1 | +10.00 | TBC (Jan 2026) |
| Sidney Banks Memorial | 1 | +6.00 | TBC (Feb 2026) |
| Royal Bond Novice Hurdle | 1 | +4.50 | Koktail Brut (8/13f) |
| Kempton Boxing Day NH | 1 | +4.00 | - |
| Future Champions (Leopardstown) | 0 | -5.00 | Skylight Hustle (3/1) |
⚠️ Future Champions Warning: Despite being a Grade 1, the Leopardstown Future Champions Novice Hurdle has produced ZERO Supreme winners from 6 runners (-5.00). Winners here tend to go for the Ballymore instead.
2025/26 Trial Form
Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (30 Nov 2025)
Winner: Koktail Brut (8/13f) - Elliott/Kennedy. Won by a head from Blake (8/1) in a tight finish. However, flopped to 7th when odds-on at the Future Champions next time.
Royal Bond → Supreme path: 1 winner, +4.50 profit. Notable: Hurricane Fly (2008), Envoi Allen (2019) and Marine Nationale (2022) all won the Royal Bond.
Future Champions Novice Hurdle (27 Dec 2025)
Winner: Skylight Hustle (3/1) - Elliott/Kennedy. Won after Talk The Talk fell at the last when leading. Koktail Brut (Royal Bond winner) finished a well-beaten 7th.
Key note: Talk The Talk (J P O'Brien) would have won but for falling at the last. One to watch if reappearing before Cheltenham.
Formby Novices' Hurdle (26 Dec 2025)
Winner: Idaho Sun (3/1) - Harry Fry/Bryan Carver. Beat the odds-on Mydaddypaddy (Dan Skelton) by 3.25 lengths. Constitution Hill won this race (when run as Tolworth) in 2022.
Formby/Tolworth → Supreme path: 2 winners, +11.25 profit.
Finesse Juvenile Hurdle (25 Jan 2025)
2025 Winner: East India Dock (1/2f) - J P Owen/Sam Twiston-Davies. Note: Sir Gino won this in 2024 before winning the Triumph Hurdle. This is primarily a Triumph trial but has produced Supreme winners including Vauban.
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Trials Still To Run
| Race | Date | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Deloitte Novice Hurdle | 1 Feb 2026 (DRF) | THE key trial - 8 winners |
| Rossington Main | TBC Jan 2026 | 1 winner, +10 profit |
| Sidney Banks Memorial | Feb 2026 | Shishkin (2020) came through here |
| Newbury 2m5f Novice Hurdle | Feb 2026 | 3 winners, +35 profit |
Trainer & Jockey Records
| Trainer | Win% | P/L | Notable Winners |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nicky Henderson | 21% | +1.25 | Constitution Hill, Shishkin, Altior |
| Willie Mullins | 15% | -8.50 | Vauban, Appreciate It |
| Gordon Elliott | 12% | -5.00 | Ballyadam |
| Jockey | Win% | P/L |
|---|---|---|
| Nico de Boinville | 43% | +8.25 |
| Paul Townend | 18% | -2.00 |
Current Ante-Post Market (January 2026)
⚠️ Wide Open Market: Joint 5/1 favourites suggest no standout has emerged yet. The Deloitte (1 Feb) typically produces the real market leader - consider waiting before serious ante-post investment.
| Horse | Trainer | Odds | Form/Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Old Park Star | N Henderson | 5/1 | Won Cheltenham novice hurdle by 12L (Dec). Henderson/Boinville combo (43% jockey SR). Unexposed - only 2 hurdle runs. |
| El Cairos | G Elliott | 5/1 | Bumper form only (2nd Champion Bumper 2025). Fell on hurdles debut at Leopardstown (Dec). Unproven over hurdles. |
| Talk The Talk | J P O'Brien | 8/1 | Fell last when leading Future Champions. Would have won. One to follow. |
| Mydaddypaddy | D Skelton | 10/1 | Beaten odds-on in Formby by Idaho Sun. Market still respects him. |
| Idaho Sun | H Fry | 14/1 | Won Formby. Constitution Hill route but market lukewarm. |
| Skylight Hustle | G Elliott | 16/1 | Won Future Champions but benefited from Talk The Talk fall. |
| Koktail Brut | G Elliott | 50/1 | Royal Bond winner flopped to 7th at Leopardstown. Questions to answer. |
Market Analysis
Old Park Star ticks key boxes: Henderson-trained (21% Supreme SR), Boinville ride (43% SR), and an impressive 12-length Cheltenham novice hurdle win in December. With only 2 hurdle runs, he's the unexposed improver in the market. The concern? He hasn't run in a recognised trial race.
El Cairos placed in the 2025 Champion Bumper but fell on his hurdles debut at Leopardstown in December. That's a red flag - he's joint favourite with zero completed hurdle runs. Elliott clearly rates him highly but there's risk here.
💡 Ante-Post Strategy: The 5/1 joint favourites have question marks. Old Park Star fits trainer/jockey trends but hasn't run a recognised trial. El Cairos fell on hurdles debut. The Deloitte (8 Supreme winners, +24.65) on 1 Feb will likely reshape this market significantly.
Trial Form Contenders
Based on recognised trial form to date:
| Horse | Trainer | Trial Form | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skylight Hustle | G Elliott | Won Future Champions | Benefited from Talk The Talk fall |
| Idaho Sun | H Fry | Won Formby | Beat odds-on Mydaddypaddy |
| Talk The Talk | J P O'Brien | Fell last (Future Ch.) | Would have won - one to follow |
| Koktail Brut | G Elliott | Won Royal Bond, 7th Future Ch. | Questions to answer after flop |
| TBC - Deloitte winner | - | 1 Feb 2026 | THE key trial - 8 winners |
Supreme 2026 Betting Strategy
✅ BACK
- 3rd favourite (+20.00)
- Deloitte winners (+24.65)
- Henderson runners (21%)
- Boinville rides (43%)
- Formby/Tolworth winners
❌ AVOID
- Future Champions winners (0/6)
- Favourites (-4.35)
- No previous Grade 1 form
- First run since December
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Data source: HorseRaceBase Big Race Trends | Last updated: January 2026
Related: Deloitte Novice Hurdle Analysis | DRF Guide | Festival Hub