Match preview
Spain carry the rating edge but it's not large. Either side could nick it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (55%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (119 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 26% / 19% / 55% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: France 0.8 · Spain 1.8
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Dv Italy1–1
- W@ Belgium1–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- Lv England4–6
- Lv Spain0–2
Spain — last 5
- Wv Croatia4–1
- W@ England3–2
- Wv Argentina1–0
- W@ France2–0
- Wv Belgium2–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Maignan G
- 5J. Kounde D
- 4D. Upamecano D
- 17W. Saliba D
- 3L. Digne D
- 8A. Tchouameni M
- 14A. Rabiot M
- 7O. Dembele M
- 11M. Olise M
- 12B. Barcola M
- 10K. Mbappe F
- 23U. Simon G
- 12P. Porro D
- 22P. Cubarsi D
- 14A. Laporte D
- 24M. Cucurella D
- 16Rodri M
- 8F. Ruiz M
- 19Lamine Yamal M
- 10D. Olmo M
- 15A. Baena M
- 21M. Oyarzabal F
Key matchups
France's focal point in attack against the heart of Spain's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Spain's main outlet — how France's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.