Match preview
Argentina are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 61%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Switzerland a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Argentina are favourites (61%)
- Argentina carry the higher Elo rating (+275 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Argentina won 4 of their last five (4W 1L)
- Switzerland won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 61% / 17% / 22% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Argentina are expected to control possession and territory, while Switzerland will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Argentina goal would force Switzerland to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Argentina 1.9 · Switzerland 0.7
Quick stats
Argentina — last 5
- L@ Spain0–1
- W@ England2–1
- Wv Switzerland3–1
- Wv Egypt3–2
- Wv Cape Verde Islands3–2
Switzerland — last 5
- L@ Argentina1–3
- Dv Colombia0–0
- Wv Algeria2–0
- Wv Canada2–1
- Wv Bosnia & Herzegovina4–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23E. Martinez G
- 26N. Molina D
- 13C. Romero D
- 6L. Martinez D
- 3N. Tagliafico D
- 5L. Paredes M
- 7R. de Paul M
- 24E. Fernandez M
- 20A. Mac Allister M
- 10L. Messi F
- 9J. Alvarez F
- 1G. Kobel G
- 6D. Zakaria D
- 4N. Elvedi D
- 5M. Akanji D
- 13R. Rodriguez D
- 8R. Freuler M
- 10G. Xhaka M
- 15D. Sow M
- 22F. Rieder M
- 11D. Ndoye M
- 7B. Embolo F
Key matchups
Argentina's focal point in attack against the heart of Switzerland's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Switzerland's main outlet — how Argentina's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.