Match preview
Spain are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 62%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Belgium a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (62%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (+211 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Belgium won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 62% / 17% / 21% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Belgium will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Spain goal would force Belgium to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Spain 1.9 · Belgium 0.7
Quick stats
Spain — last 5
- Wv Argentina1–0
- W@ France2–0
- Wv Belgium2–1
- W@ Portugal1–0
- Wv Austria3–0
Belgium — last 5
- L@ Spain1–2
- W@ USA4–1
- Wv Senegal3–2
- W@ New Zealand5–1
- Dv Iran0–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23U. Simon G
- 12P. Porro D
- 22P. Cubarsi D
- 14A. Laporte D
- 24M. Cucurella D
- 16Rodri M
- 8F. Ruiz M
- 19Lamine Yamal M
- 10D. Olmo M
- 15A. Baena M
- 21M. Oyarzabal F
- 1T. Courtois G
- 21T. Castagne D
- 25N. Ngoy D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 5M. De Cuyper D
- 20H. Vanaken M
- 23N. Raskin M
- 10L. Trossard M
- 7K. De Bruyne M
- 11J. Doku M
- 17C. De Ketelaere F
Key matchups
Spain's focal point in attack against the heart of Belgium's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Belgium's main outlet — how Spain's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.