Match preview
Spain are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 57%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Belgium a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (57%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (+141 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Belgium won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 57% / 18% / 25% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Belgium will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Spain goal would force Belgium to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Spain 1.8 · Belgium 0.8
Quick stats
Spain — last 5
- Wv Belgium2–1
- W@ Portugal1–0
- Wv Austria3–0
- W@ Uruguay1–0
- Wv Saudi Arabia4–0
Belgium — last 5
- L@ Spain1–2
- W@ USA4–1
- Wv Senegal3–2
- W@ New Zealand5–1
- Dv Iran0–0
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Confirmed lineups
- 23Unai Simón G
- 12Pedro Porro D
- 22Pau Cubarsí D
- 14Aymeric Laporte D
- 24Marc Cucurella D
- 16Rodri M
- 8Fabián Ruiz M
- 19Lamine Yamal M
- 10Dani Olmo M
- 15Alex Baena M
- 21Mikel Oyarzabal F
- 1Thibaut Courtois G
- 21Timothy Castagne D
- 25Nathan Ngoy D
- 4Brandon Mechele D
- 5Maxim De Cuyper D
- 20Hans Vanaken M
- 23Nicolas Raskin M
- 10Leandro Trossard M
- 7Kevin De Bruyne M
- 11Jérémy Doku M
- 17Charles De Ketelaere F
Key matchups
Spain's focal point in attack against the heart of Belgium's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Belgium's main outlet — how Spain's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.