Match preview
Colombia the better side on paper but Switzerland's recent run keeps this competitive.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Switzerland are favourites (40%)
- Colombia carry the higher Elo rating (44 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Switzerland won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Colombia mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 40% / 24% / 36% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Switzerland should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Switzerland 1.4 · Colombia 1.2
Quick stats
Switzerland — last 5
- Wv Slovenia2–1
- W@ Scotland3–0
- W@ FYR Macedonia3–0
- L@ Argentina1–3
- Dv Colombia0–0
Colombia — last 5
- Lv Paraguay0–1
- D@ Mexico1–1
- D@ Switzerland0–0
- Wv Ghana1–0
- Dv Portugal0–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1G. Kobel G
- 6D. Zakaria D
- 4N. Elvedi D
- 5M. Akanji D
- 13R. Rodriguez D
- 8R. Freuler M
- 10G. Xhaka M
- 22F. Rieder M
- 14A. Jashari M
- 11D. Ndoye M
- 7B. Embolo F
- 12C. Vargas G
- 2D. Munoz D
- 23D. Sanchez D
- 3J. Lucumi D
- 17J. Mojica D
- 11J. Arias M
- 16J. Lerma M
- 14G. Puerta M
- 7L. Diaz M
- 10J. Rodriguez F
- 25L. Suarez F
Key matchups
Switzerland's focal point in attack against the heart of Colombia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Colombia's main outlet — how Switzerland's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.