Match preview
Belgium enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 43% chance. USA likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (43%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (141 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- USA won 4 of their last five (4W 1L)
- Belgium won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 34% / 23% / 43% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while USA will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Belgium goal would force USA to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: USA 1.2 · Belgium 1.4
Quick stats
USA — last 5
- Wv Mexico3–0
- Wv Chile4–2
- Wv Peru4–1
- Lv Belgium1–4
- Wv Bosnia & Herzegovina2–0
Belgium — last 5
- Wv Türkiye3–0
- Lv France0–1
- W@ Italy2–0
- L@ Spain1–2
- W@ USA4–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 24M. Freese G
- 16A. Freeman D
- 3C. Richards D
- 13T. Ream D
- 2S. Dest D
- 8W. McKennie M
- 4T. Adams M
- 17M. Tillman M
- 5A. Robinson D
- 10C. Pulisic F
- 20F. Balogun F
- 1T. Courtois G
- 21T. Castagne D
- 25N. Ngoy D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 5M. De Cuyper D
- 24A. Onana M
- 8Y. Tielemans M
- 10L. Trossard F
- 23N. Raskin M
- 14D. Lukebakio F
- 17C. De Ketelaere F
Key matchups
USA's focal point in attack against the heart of Belgium's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Belgium's main outlet — how USA's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.