Match preview
Morocco enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 46% chance. Canada likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Morocco are favourites (46%)
- Morocco carry the higher Elo rating (168 points)
- Host-nation advantage — Canada playing at home
- Canada won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Morocco mixed recent form (2W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 32% / 22% / 46% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Morocco are expected to control possession and territory, while Canada will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Morocco goal would force Canada to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Canada 1.1 · Morocco 1.5
Quick stats
Canada — last 5
- L@ USA0–1
- Wv Peru2–0
- Wv Chile1–0
- Lv Morocco0–3
- W@ South Africa1–0
Morocco — last 5
- Dv Ghana?–?
- Dv Mali1–1
- W@ Lesotho2–0
- Wv Gabon2–0
- L@ France0–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Crepeau G
- 2A. Johnston D
- 15M. Bombito D
- 4L. De Fougerolles D
- 22R. Laryea D
- 17T. Buchanan M
- 23N. Sigur M
- 7S. Eustaquio M
- 20A. Ahmed M
- 10J. David F
- 12T. Oluwaseyi F
- 1Bono G
- 2A. Hakimi D
- 14I. Diop D
- 25R. Halhal D
- 3N. Mazraoui D
- 6A. Bouaddi M
- 24N. El Aynaoui M
- 10B. Diaz M
- 8A. Ounahi M
- 23B. El Khannouss M
- 11I. Saibari F
Key matchups
Canada's focal point in attack against the heart of Morocco's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Morocco's main outlet — how Canada's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.