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WORLD CUP 2026 · Friday, 3 July 2026 at 04:00 BST
Switzerland
1 – 0
Algeria
● LIVE · 33'

Match preview

Switzerland are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 56%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Algeria a way in.

56%
Switzerland
19%
Draw
25%
Algeria
Model fair odds
Switzerland
1.79
Draw
5.26
Algeria
4.00

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Switzerland
56%
Draw
19%
Algeria
25%
Elo rating: 1910 vs 1785 (+125)
Recent form: WWWDD vs LDWLW
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 56% / 19% / 25%
Most likely scores
Switzerland 1–0 (13%)
Switzerland 2–0 (12%)
Draw 1–1 (11%)
Switzerland 2–1 (10%)
Why Switzerland are favourites (56%)
  • Switzerland carry the higher Elo rating (+125 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • Switzerland unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
  • Algeria mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 56% / 19% / 25% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Switzerland are expected to control possession and territory, while Algeria will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Switzerland goal would force Algeria to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: Switzerland 1.8 · Algeria 0.8

Quick stats

MetricSwitzerlandAlgeria
Elo rating19101785
Last 5 record3W 2D2W 1D 2L
Goals last 599
Goals conceded last 548
Clean sheets last 511

Switzerland — last 5

  • Wv Algeria10
  • Wv Canada21
  • Wv Bosnia & Herzegovina41
  • D@ Qatar11
  • Dv Australia11

Algeria — last 5

  • L@ Switzerland01
  • Dv Austria33
  • W@ Jordan21
  • L@ Argentina03
  • W@ Bolivia40

Head to head

No recent meetings on record between these sides.

Confirmed lineups

Switzerland · 4-2-3-1
  1. 1Gregor Kobel G
  2. 6Denis Zakaria D
  3. 4Nico Elvedi D
  4. 5Manuel Akanji D
  5. 13Ricardo Rodríguez D
  6. 8Remo Freuler M
  7. 10Granit Xhaka M
  8. 11Dan Ndoye M
  9. 9Johan Manzambi M
  10. 17Rubén Vargas M
  11. 7Breel Embolo F
Algeria · 4-3-3
  1. 23Luca Zidane G
  2. 17Rafik Belghali D
  3. 2Aïssa Mandi D
  4. 21Ramy Bensebaini D
  5. 15Rayan Aït-Nouri D
  6. 6Ramiz Zerrouki M
  7. 19Nabil Bentaleb M
  8. 8Houssem Aouar M
  9. 7Riyad Mahrez F
  10. 22Ibrahim Maza F
  11. 10Farès Chaïbi F

Key matchups

Breel Embolo vs Aïssa Mandi

Switzerland's focal point in attack against the heart of Algeria's defence.

Dan Ndoye vs Nabil Bentaleb

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

Riyad Mahrez vs Nico Elvedi

Algeria's main outlet — how Switzerland's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.