Match preview
Spain are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 69%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Austria a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (69%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (+288 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Austria mixed recent form (1W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 69% / 15% / 16% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Austria will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Spain goal would force Austria to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Spain 2.1 · Austria 0.5
Quick stats
Spain — last 5
- Wv Austria3–0
- W@ Uruguay1–0
- Wv Saudi Arabia4–0
- Dv Cape Verde Islands0–0
- W@ Peru3–1
Austria — last 5
- L@ Spain0–3
- D@ Algeria3–3
- L@ Argentina0–2
- Wv Jordan3–1
- Dv Guatemala?–?
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23Unai Simón G
- 12Pedro Porro D
- 22Pau Cubarsí D
- 14Aymeric Laporte D
- 24Marc Cucurella D
- 16Rodri M
- 20Pedri M
- 19Lamine Yamal M
- 10Dani Olmo M
- 15Alex Baena M
- 21Mikel Oyarzabal F
- 1Alexander Schlager G
- 5Stefan Posch D
- 3Kevin Danso D
- 8David Alaba D
- 20Konrad Laimer D
- 6Nicolas Seiwald M
- 4Xaver Schlager M
- 18Romano Schmid M
- 24Paul Wanner M
- 9Marcel Sabitzer M
- 11Michael Gregoritsch F
Key matchups
Spain's focal point in attack against the heart of Austria's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Austria's main outlet — how Spain's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.