Match preview
Spain are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 74%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Austria a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (74%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (+396 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Austria mixed recent form (1W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 74% / 15% / 11% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Austria will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Spain goal would force Austria to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Spain 2.1 · Austria 0.5
Quick stats
Spain — last 5
- Wv Argentina1–0
- W@ France2–0
- Wv Belgium2–1
- W@ Portugal1–0
- Wv Austria3–0
Austria — last 5
- L@ Spain0–3
- D@ Algeria3–3
- L@ Argentina0–2
- Wv Jordan3–1
- Dv Guatemala?–?
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23U. Simon G
- 12P. Porro D
- 22P. Cubarsi D
- 14A. Laporte D
- 24M. Cucurella D
- 16Rodri M
- 20Pedri M
- 19Lamine Yamal M
- 10D. Olmo M
- 15A. Baena M
- 21M. Oyarzabal F
- 1A. Schlager G
- 5S. Posch D
- 3K. Danso D
- 8D. Alaba D
- 20K. Laimer D
- 6N. Seiwald M
- 4X. Schlager M
- 18R. Schmid M
- 24P. Wanner M
- 9M. Sabitzer M
- 11M. Gregoritsch F
Key matchups
Spain's focal point in attack against the heart of Austria's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Austria's main outlet — how Spain's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.