Match preview
Belgium are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 48%. Only a poor recent run (one-from-five) gives Senegal a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (48%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (+195 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Belgium mixed recent form (2W 3L)
- Senegal won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 48% / 21% / 31% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while Senegal will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Belgium goal would force Senegal to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Belgium 1.6 · Senegal 1
Quick stats
Belgium — last 5
- L@ France1–4
- Wv Türkiye3–0
- Lv France0–1
- W@ Italy2–0
- L@ Spain1–2
Senegal — last 5
- W@ Comoros1–0
- W@ Ethiopia1–0
- D@ Mozambique1–1
- L@ Belgium2–3
- Wv Iraq5–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1T. Courtois G
- 21T. Castagne D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 3A. Theate D
- 5M. De Cuyper D
- 8Y. Tielemans M
- 20H. Vanaken M
- 10L. Trossard M
- 7K. De Bruyne M
- 11J. Doku M
- 17C. De Ketelaere F
- 23M. Diaw G
- 15K. Diatta D
- 6P. Ciss D
- 19M. Niakhate D
- 14I. Jakobs D
- 21H. Diarra M
- 5I. Gueye M
- 26P. Gueye M
- 13I. Ndiaye F
- 18I. Sarr F
- 10S. Mane F
Key matchups
Belgium's focal point in attack against the heart of Senegal's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Senegal's main outlet — how Belgium's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.