Match preview
Belgium are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 63%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Senegal a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (63%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (+195 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Belgium won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Senegal mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 63% / 16% / 21% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while Senegal will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Belgium goal would force Senegal to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Belgium 2 · Senegal 0.6
Quick stats
Belgium — last 5
- L@ Spain1–2
- W@ USA4–1
- Wv Senegal3–2
- W@ New Zealand5–1
- Dv Iran0–0
Senegal — last 5
- L@ Belgium2–3
- Wv Iraq5–0
- L@ Norway2–3
- L@ France1–3
- D@ Saudi Arabia0–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1T. Courtois G
- 21T. Castagne D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 3A. Theate D
- 5M. De Cuyper D
- 8Y. Tielemans M
- 20H. Vanaken M
- 10L. Trossard M
- 7K. De Bruyne M
- 11J. Doku M
- 17C. De Ketelaere F
- 23M. Diaw G
- 15K. Diatta D
- 6P. Ciss D
- 19M. Niakhate D
- 14I. Jakobs D
- 21H. Diarra M
- 5I. Gueye M
- 26P. Gueye M
- 13I. Ndiaye F
- 18I. Sarr F
- 10S. Mane F
Key matchups
Belgium's focal point in attack against the heart of Senegal's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Senegal's main outlet — how Belgium's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.