Match preview
England are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 63%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Congo DR a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why England are favourites (63%)
- England carry the higher Elo rating (+401 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- England won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Congo DR won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 63% / 16% / 21% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
England are expected to control possession and territory, while Congo DR will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early England goal would force Congo DR to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: England 2 · Congo DR 0.6
Quick stats
England — last 5
- W@ Czechia2–0
- Lv Spain2–3
- W@ France6–4
- Lv Argentina1–2
- W@ Norway2–1
Congo DR — last 5
- Lv Uganda0–2
- W@ Zimbabwe2–1
- Wv Equatorial Guinea2–0
- L@ England1–2
- Wv Uzbekistan3–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1J. Pickford G
- 25D. Spence D
- 2E. Konsa D
- 6M. Guehi D
- 3N. O'Reilly D
- 8E. Anderson M
- 4D. Rice M
- 20N. Madueke M
- 10J. Bellingham M
- 11M. Rashford M
- 9H. Kane F
- 1L. Mpasi-Nzau G
- 2A. Wan-Bissaka D
- 22C. Mbemba D
- 4A. Tuanzebe D
- 26A. Masuaku D
- 6N. Mukau M
- 8S. Moutoussamy M
- 14N. Sadiki M
- 7N. Mbuku F
- 20Y. Wissa F
- 9B. Cipenga F
Key matchups
England's focal point in attack against the heart of Congo DR's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Congo DR's main outlet — how England's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.