Match preview
France are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 56%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Sweden a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (56%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (+274 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Sweden mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 56% / 18% / 26% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Sweden will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early France goal would force Sweden to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: France 1.8 · Sweden 0.8
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Dv Italy1–1
- W@ Belgium1–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- Lv England4–6
- Lv Spain0–2
Sweden — last 5
- D@ Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1
- Wv Poland3–1
- Wv Romania2–1
- L@ France0–3
- D@ Japan1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Maignan G
- 5J. Kounde D
- 4D. Upamecano D
- 17W. Saliba D
- 3L. Digne D
- 8A. Tchouameni M
- 14A. Rabiot M
- 7O. Dembele M
- 11M. Olise M
- 12B. Barcola M
- 10K. Mbappe F
- 1J. Widell Zetterstrom G
- 8D. Svensson D
- 2G. Lagerbielke D
- 3V. Lindelof D
- 5G. Gudmundsson D
- 11A. Elanga M
- 7L. Bergvall M
- 18Y. Ayari M
- 24E. Stroud M
- 17V. Gyökeres F
- 9A. Isak F
Key matchups
France's focal point in attack against the heart of Sweden's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Sweden's main outlet — how France's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.