Match preview
Germany are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 54%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Paraguay a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Germany are favourites (54%)
- Germany carry the higher Elo rating (+225 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Germany mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
- Paraguay mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 54% / 19% / 27% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Germany are expected to control possession and territory, while Paraguay will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Germany goal would force Paraguay to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Germany 1.7 · Paraguay 0.9
Quick stats
Germany — last 5
- D@ Greece0–0
- Wv Serbia2–0
- Lv Greece0–1
- D@ Netherlands1–1
- Dv Paraguay1–1
Paraguay — last 5
- W@ Colombia1–0
- W@ Bolivia2–0
- Lv France0–1
- D@ Germany1–1
- Dv Australia0–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1M. Neuer G
- 6J. Kimmich D
- 4J. Tah D
- 2A. Rudiger D
- 18N. Brown D
- 19L. Sane M
- 23F. Nmecha M
- 5A. Pavlovic M
- 17F. Wirtz M
- 7K. Havertz F
- 26D. Undav F
- 12O. Gill G
- 4J. Caceres D
- 15G. Gomez D
- 13J. Canale D
- 6J. Alonso D
- 10M. Almiron M
- 16D. Bobadilla M
- 14A. Cubas M
- 23M. Galarza M
- 21G. Avalos F
- 19J. Enciso F
Key matchups
Germany's focal point in attack against the heart of Paraguay's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Paraguay's main outlet — how Germany's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.