Match preview
Canada the better side on paper but South Africa's recent run keeps this competitive.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Canada are favourites (40%)
- Canada carry the higher Elo rating (104 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- South Africa won 4 of their last five (4W 1L)
- Canada won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 36% / 24% / 40% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Canada should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: South Africa 1.2 · Canada 1.4
Quick stats
South Africa — last 5
- W@ Egypt1–0
- W@ Eritrea5–0
- Wv Guinea2–1
- Lv Canada0–1
- Wv South Korea1–0
Canada — last 5
- Wv Peru2–0
- Wv Chile1–0
- Lv Morocco0–3
- W@ South Africa1–0
- L@ Switzerland1–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1R. Williams G
- 20K. Mudau D
- 21I. Okon D
- 14M. Mbokazi D
- 6A. Modiba D
- 4T. Mokoena M
- 13Y. Sithole M
- 12T. Maseko M
- 10R. Mofokeng M
- 7O. Appollis M
- 17E. Makgopa F
- 16M. Crepeau G
- 2A. Johnston D
- 15M. Bombito D
- 13D. Cornelius D
- 22R. Laryea D
- 17T. Buchanan M
- 25N. Saliba M
- 7S. Eustaquio M
- 11L. Millar M
- 10J. David F
- 12T. Oluwaseyi F
Key matchups
South Africa's focal point in attack against the heart of Canada's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Canada's main outlet — how South Africa's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.