Match preview
Senegal are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 63%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Iraq a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Senegal are favourites (63%)
- Senegal carry the higher Elo rating (+199 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Senegal won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Iraq mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 63% / 16% / 21% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Senegal are expected to control possession and territory, while Iraq will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Senegal goal would force Iraq to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Senegal 2 · Iraq 0.6
Quick stats
Senegal — last 5
- W@ Comoros1–0
- W@ Ethiopia1–0
- D@ Mozambique1–1
- L@ Belgium2–3
- Wv Iraq5–0
Iraq — last 5
- L@ Saudi Arabia0–2
- W@ Kuwait3–2
- Dv Oman1–1
- L@ Senegal0–5
- L@ France0–3
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23M. Diaw G
- 15K. Diatta D
- 4A. Seck D
- 19M. Niakhate D
- 14I. Jakobs D
- 21H. Diarra M
- 5I. Gueye M
- 8L. Camara M
- 20I. Mbaye F
- 18I. Sarr F
- 10S. Mane F
- 22A. Basil G
- 26F. Putros D
- 2R. Sulaka D
- 5A. Hashem D
- 23M. Doski D
- 14Z. Iqbal M
- 16A. Al Ammari M
- 11A. Qasem M
- 17A. Jasim M
- 8I. Bayesh M
- 9A. Al Hamadi F
Key matchups
Senegal's focal point in attack against the heart of Iraq's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Iraq's main outlet — how Senegal's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.