Match preview
Norway enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 60% chance. Iraq likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Norway are favourites (60%)
- Norway carry the higher Elo rating (160 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Iraq winless in their last five (1D 4L)
- Norway won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 23% / 17% / 60% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Norway are expected to control possession and territory, while Iraq will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Norway goal would force Iraq to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Iraq 0.7 · Norway 1.9
Quick stats
Iraq — last 5
- L@ Senegal0–5
- L@ France0–3
- Lv Norway1–4
- Lv Venezuela0–2
- D@ Spain1–1
Norway — last 5
- Lv England1–2
- W@ Brazil2–1
- W@ Ivory Coast2–1
- Lv France1–4
- Wv Senegal3–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 12J. Hassan G
- 3H. Ali D
- 4Z. Tahseen D
- 5A. Hashem D
- 23M. Doski D
- 8I. Bayesh M
- 24Z. Ismaeel M
- 16A. Al Ammari M
- 17A. Jasim M
- 18A. Hussein F
- 9A. Al Hamadi F
- 1O. Nyland G
- 26J. Ryerson D
- 3K. Ajer D
- 17T. Heggem D
- 5D. Wolfe D
- 10M. Odegaard M
- 8S. Berge M
- 14F. Aursnes M
- 20A. Nusa M
- 7A. Sorloth F
- 9E. Haaland F
Key matchups
Iraq's focal point in attack against the heart of Norway's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Norway's main outlet — how Iraq's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.