Match preview
Congo DR edge it on ratings AND form has been the better of the two over the last five.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Congo DR are favourites (54%)
- Congo DR carry the higher Elo rating (+95 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Congo DR mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Uzbekistan winless in their last five (5L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 54% / 19% / 27% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Congo DR should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Congo DR 1.7 · Uzbekistan 0.9
Quick stats
Congo DR — last 5
- L@ England1–2
- Wv Uzbekistan3–1
- L@ Colombia0–1
- D@ Portugal1–1
- Lv Chile1–2
Uzbekistan — last 5
- L@ Congo DR1–3
- L@ Portugal0–5
- Lv Colombia1–3
- L@ Netherlands1–2
- L@ Canada0–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Lionel Mpasi Nzau G
- 2Aaron Wan-Bissaka D
- 22Chancel Mbemba D
- 4Axel Tuanzebe D
- 26Arthur Masuaku D
- 7Nathanaël Mbuku M
- 8Samuel Moutoussamy M
- 14Noah Sadiki M
- 9Brian Cipenga M
- 17Cédric Bakambu F
- 20Yoane Wissa F
- 12Abduvokhid Nematov G
- 5Rustam Ashurmatov D
- 2Abdukodir Khusanov D
- 26Jakhongir Urozov D
- 3Khozhiakbar Alizhonov M
- 6Akmal Mozgovoy M
- 7Otabek Shukurov M
- 13Sherzod Nasrullaev M
- 17Dostonbek Khamdamov F
- 22Abbosbek Fayzullaev F
- 14Eldor Shomurodov F
Key matchups
Congo DR's focal point in attack against the heart of Uzbekistan's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Uzbekistan's main outlet — how Congo DR's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.