Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (+0 points). Recent form fractionally favours Congo DR.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (+0 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Congo DR mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Uzbekistan winless in their last five (5L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 46% / 22% / 32% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Congo DR 1.5 · Uzbekistan 1.1
Quick stats
Congo DR — last 5
- L@ England1–2
- Wv Uzbekistan3–1
- L@ Colombia0–1
- D@ Portugal1–1
- Lv Chile1–2
Uzbekistan — last 5
- L@ Congo DR1–3
- L@ Portugal0–5
- Lv Colombia1–3
- L@ Netherlands1–2
- L@ Canada0–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1L. Mpasi-Nzau G
- 2A. Wan-Bissaka D
- 22C. Mbemba D
- 4A. Tuanzebe D
- 26A. Masuaku D
- 7N. Mbuku M
- 8S. Moutoussamy M
- 14N. Sadiki M
- 9B. Cipenga M
- 17C. Bakambu F
- 20Y. Wissa F
- 12A. Nematov G
- 5R. Ashurmatov D
- 2A. Khusanov D
- 26J. Urozov D
- 3K. Alizhonov M
- 6A. Mozgovoy M
- 7O. Shukurov M
- 13S. Nasrullaev M
- 17D. Khamdamov F
- 22A. Fayzullaev F
- 14E. Shomurodov F
Key matchups
Congo DR's focal point in attack against the heart of Uzbekistan's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Uzbekistan's main outlet — how Congo DR's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.