Match preview
USA enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 48% chance. Türkiye likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why USA are favourites (48%)
- USA carry the higher Elo rating (160 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Türkiye won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- USA won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 31% / 21% / 48% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
USA are expected to control possession and territory, while Türkiye will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early USA goal would force Türkiye to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Türkiye 1 · USA 1.6
Quick stats
Türkiye — last 5
- Wv USA3–2
- Lv Paraguay0–1
- L@ Australia0–2
- W@ Venezuela2–1
- Wv FYR Macedonia4–0
USA — last 5
- Lv Belgium1–4
- Wv Bosnia & Herzegovina2–0
- L@ Türkiye2–3
- Wv Australia2–0
- Wv Paraguay4–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23U. Cakir G
- 2Z. Celik D
- 15O. Kabak D
- 14A. Bardakci D
- 24O. Aydin M
- 5S. Ozcan M
- 6O. Kokcu M
- 13E. Elmali M
- 8A. Guler F
- 11K. Yildiz F
- 21B. Yilmaz F
- 1M. Turner G
- 23J. Scally D
- 12M. Robinson D
- 22M. McKenzie D
- 6A. Trusty D
- 8W. McKennie M
- 14S. Berhalter M
- 7G. Reyna M
- 11B. Aaronson F
- 9R. Pepi F
- 21T. Weah F
Key matchups
Türkiye's focal point in attack against the heart of USA's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
USA's main outlet — how Türkiye's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.