Match preview
USA enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 38% chance. Türkiye likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Türkiye are favourites (38%)
- USA carry the higher Elo rating (160 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Türkiye unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- USA mixed recent form (2W 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 38% / 24% / 38% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Türkiye are expected to control possession and territory, while USA will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Türkiye goal would force USA to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Türkiye 1.3 · USA 1.3
Quick stats
Türkiye — last 5
- W@ Venezuela2–1
- Wv FYR Macedonia4–0
- W@ Kosovo1–0
- Wv Romania1–0
- D@ Spain2–2
USA — last 5
- Lv Germany1–2
- Wv Senegal3–2
- Lv Portugal0–2
- Lv Belgium2–5
- Wv Uruguay5–1
Head to head
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.