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WORLD CUP 2026 · Wednesday, 24 June 2026 at 20:00 BST
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3 – 1
Qatar

Match preview

Bosnia & Herzegovina edge it on ratings AND form has been the better of the two over the last five.

54%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
19%
Draw
27%
Qatar
Model fair odds
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1.85
Draw
5.26
Qatar
3.70

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Bosnia & Herzegovina
54%
Draw
19%
Qatar
27%
Elo rating: 1720 vs 1618 (+102)
Recent form: WLDDD vs LLDDL
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 54% / 19% / 27%
Most likely scores
Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0 (13%)
Draw 1–1 (11%)
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–0 (11%)
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–1 (10%)
Why Bosnia & Herzegovina are favourites (54%)
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina carry the higher Elo rating (+102 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
  • Qatar winless in their last five (2D 3L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 54% / 19% / 27% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Bosnia & Herzegovina should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.

Expected goals: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1.7 · Qatar 0.9

Quick stats

MetricBosnia & HerzegovinaQatar
Elo rating17201618
Last 5 record1W 3D 1L2D 3L
Goals last 562
Goals conceded last 5711
Clean sheets last 511

Bosnia & Herzegovina — last 5

  • Wv Qatar31
  • L@ Switzerland14
  • D@ Canada11
  • D@ Panama11
  • Dv FYR Macedonia00

Qatar — last 5

  • L@ Bosnia & Herzegovina13
  • L@ Canada06
  • Dv Switzerland11
  • Dv El Salvador00
  • L@ Rep. Of Ireland01

Head to head

24 Jun 2026
Bosnia & Herzegovina
31
Qatar

Confirmed lineups

Bosnia & Herzegovina · 4-4-2
  1. 1N. Vasilj G
  2. 24A. Malic D
  3. 18N. Katic D
  4. 21S. Radeljic D
  5. 5S. Kolasinac D
  6. 20E. Bajraktarevic M
  7. 13I. Basic M
  8. 14I. Sunjic M
  9. 19K. Alajbegovic M
  10. 10E. Demirovic F
  11. 11E. Dzeko F
Qatar · 4-3-3
  1. 1M. Abunada G
  2. 2Pedro Miguel D
  3. 16B. Khoukhi D
  4. 4I. Laye D
  5. 18S. Al Brake D
  6. 5J. Gaber M
  7. 20A. Fathi M
  8. 12K. Boudiaf M
  9. 8Edmilson Junior F
  10. 11A. Afif F
  11. 10H. Al Haydos F

Key matchups

E. Demirovic vs B. Khoukhi

Bosnia & Herzegovina's focal point in attack against the heart of Qatar's defence.

I. Basic vs A. Fathi

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

Edmilson Junior vs N. Katic

Qatar's main outlet — how Bosnia & Herzegovina's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.