Match preview
Netherlands are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 57%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Sweden a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Netherlands are favourites (57%)
- Netherlands carry the higher Elo rating (+200 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Netherlands won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Sweden mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 57% / 18% / 25% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Netherlands are expected to control possession and territory, while Sweden will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Netherlands goal would force Sweden to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Netherlands 1.8 · Sweden 0.8
Quick stats
Netherlands — last 5
- Wv Uzbekistan2–1
- Lv Algeria0–1
- Dv Ecuador1–1
- Wv Norway2–1
- Wv Lithuania4–0
Sweden — last 5
- Dv Greece2–2
- L@ Norway1–3
- Wv Poland3–2
- W@ Ukraine3–1
- Dv Slovenia1–1
Head to head
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.