Match preview
Netherlands are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 55%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Sweden a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Netherlands are favourites (55%)
- Netherlands carry the higher Elo rating (+211 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Netherlands unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D)
- Sweden won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 55% / 19% / 26% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Netherlands are expected to control possession and territory, while Sweden will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Netherlands goal would force Sweden to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Netherlands 1.8 · Sweden 0.8
Quick stats
Netherlands — last 5
- Wv Serbia2–1
- D@ Greece2–2
- W@ Serbia2–1
- Dv Germany1–1
- Dv Morocco1–1
Sweden — last 5
- W@ Romania1–0
- D@ Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1
- Wv Poland3–1
- Wv Romania2–1
- L@ France0–3
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1B. Verbruggen G
- 22D. Dumfries D
- 6J. P. van Hecke D
- 4V. van Dijk D
- 15M. van de Ven D
- 8R. Gravenberch M
- 21F. de Jong M
- 14T. Reijnders M
- 18D. Malen F
- 19B. Brobbey F
- 11C. Gakpo F
- 23K. Nordfeldt G
- 2G. Lagerbielke D
- 4I. Hien D
- 3V. Lindelof D
- 16J. Karlstrom M
- 21A. Bernhardsson M
- 10B. Nygren M
- 18Y. Ayari M
- 5G. Gudmundsson M
- 17V. Gyökeres F
- 9A. Isak F
Key matchups
Netherlands's focal point in attack against the heart of Sweden's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Sweden's main outlet — how Netherlands's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.