Match preview
Paraguay the better side on paper but Türkiye's recent run keeps this competitive.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Türkiye are favourites (40%)
- Paraguay carry the higher Elo rating (53 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Türkiye won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Paraguay mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 40% / 24% / 36% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Türkiye should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Türkiye 1.3 · Paraguay 1.3
Quick stats
Türkiye — last 5
- Wv USA3–2
- Lv Paraguay0–1
- L@ Australia0–2
- W@ Venezuela2–1
- Wv FYR Macedonia4–0
Paraguay — last 5
- Lv France0–1
- D@ Germany1–1
- Dv Australia0–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- L@ USA1–4
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23U. Cakir G
- 18M. Muldur D
- 3M. Demiral D
- 14A. Bardakci D
- 20F. Kadioglu D
- 10H. Calhanoglu M
- 16I. Yuksek M
- 19Y. Akgun M
- 8A. Guler M
- 11K. Yildiz M
- 7K. Akturkoglu F
- 12O. Gill G
- 4J. Caceres D
- 15G. Gomez D
- 3O. Alderete D
- 6J. Alonso D
- 10M. Almiron M
- 14A. Cubas M
- 8D. Gomez M
- 23M. Galarza M
- 25I. Pitta F
- 19J. Enciso F
Key matchups
Türkiye's focal point in attack against the heart of Paraguay's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Paraguay's main outlet — how Türkiye's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.