Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-30 points). Recent form fractionally favours Türkiye.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-30 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Türkiye unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Paraguay won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 43% / 23% / 34% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Türkiye 1.5 · Paraguay 1.1
Quick stats
Türkiye — last 5
- W@ Venezuela2–1
- Wv FYR Macedonia4–0
- W@ Kosovo1–0
- Wv Romania1–0
- D@ Spain2–2
Paraguay — last 5
- Wv Nicaragua4–0
- L@ Morocco1–2
- W@ Greece1–0
- W@ Mexico2–1
- L@ USA1–2
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.