Match preview
Australia are favourites on ratings but Türkiye have been the in-form side. Closer than the badges suggest.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Australia are favourites (48%)
- Australia carry the higher Elo rating (+81 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Australia winless in their last five (3D 2L)
- Türkiye mixed recent form (1W 4L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 48% / 21% / 31% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Australia should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Australia 1.6 · Türkiye 1
Quick stats
Australia — last 5
- Lv Brazil2–4
- Dv Brazil1–1
- Dv Egypt1–1
- D@ Paraguay0–0
- L@ USA0–2
Türkiye — last 5
- L@ Italy1–3
- L@ Belgium0–3
- Lv Italy1–4
- Lv France0–1
- Wv USA3–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 18P. Beach G
- 4J. Italiano D
- 3A. Circati D
- 19H. Souttar D
- 21C. Burgess D
- 5J. Bos D
- 8C. Metcalfe M
- 13A. O'Neill M
- 24P. Okon-Engstler M
- 17N. Irankunda M
- 9M. Toure F
- 23U. Cakir G
- 2Z. Celik D
- 3M. Demiral D
- 14A. Bardakci D
- 20F. Kadioglu D
- 16I. Yuksek M
- 10H. Calhanoglu M
- 8A. Guler M
- 6O. Kokcu M
- 21B. Yilmaz M
- 7K. Akturkoglu F
Key matchups
Australia's focal point in attack against the heart of Türkiye's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Türkiye's main outlet — how Australia's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.