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WORLD CUP 2026 · Friday, 12 June 2026 at 20:00 BST
Canada
1 – 1
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Match preview

Canada enter as clear favourites on home soil, with the model giving them a 54% chance of victory.

54%
Canada
19%
Draw
27%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Model fair odds
Canada
1.85
Draw
5.26
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3.70

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Canada
54%
Draw
19%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
27%
Elo rating: 1841 vs 1720 (+121)
Recent form: WLWDD vs WLDDD
Host advantage: Yes — Canada at home
Model verdict: 54% / 19% / 27%
Most likely scores
Canada 1–0 (13%)
Draw 1–1 (11%)
Canada 2–0 (11%)
Canada 2–1 (10%)
Why Canada are favourites (54%)
  • Canada carry the higher Elo rating (+121 points)
  • Host-nation advantage — Canada playing at home
  • Canada mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 54% / 19% / 27% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Canada are expected to control possession and territory, while Bosnia & Herzegovina will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Canada goal would force Bosnia & Herzegovina to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: Canada 1.7 · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.9

Quick stats

MetricCanadaBosnia & Herzegovina
Elo rating18411720
Last 5 record2W 2D 1L1W 3D 1L
Goals last 5106
Goals conceded last 547
Clean sheets last 521

Canada — last 5

  • W@ South Africa10
  • L@ Switzerland12
  • Wv Qatar60
  • Dv Bosnia & Herzegovina11
  • Dv Rep. Of Ireland11

Bosnia & Herzegovina — last 5

  • Wv Qatar31
  • L@ Switzerland14
  • D@ Canada11
  • D@ Panama11
  • Dv FYR Macedonia00

Head to head

12 Jun 2026
Canada
11
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Confirmed lineups

Canada · 4-4-2
  1. 16M. Crepeau G
  2. 2A. Johnston D
  3. 4L. De Fougerolles D
  4. 13D. Cornelius D
  5. 22R. Laryea D
  6. 17T. Buchanan M
  7. 8I. Kone M
  8. 7S. Eustaquio M
  9. 11L. Millar M
  10. 10J. David F
  11. 12T. Oluwaseyi F
Bosnia & Herzegovina · 4-4-2
  1. 1N. Vasilj G
  2. 7A. Dedic D
  3. 18N. Katic D
  4. 4T. Muharemovic D
  5. 5S. Kolasinac D
  6. 20E. Bajraktarevic M
  7. 6B. Tahirovic M
  8. 13I. Basic M
  9. 15A. Memic M
  10. 10E. Demirovic F
  11. 25J. Lukic F

Key matchups

J. David vs N. Katic

Canada's focal point in attack against the heart of Bosnia & Herzegovina's defence.

I. Kone vs B. Tahirovic

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

E. Demirovic vs L. De Fougerolles

Bosnia & Herzegovina's main outlet — how Canada's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.