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WORLD CUP 2026 · Friday, 12 June 2026 at 20:00 BST
Canada
vs
Bosnia & Herzegovina

Match preview

Canada enter as clear favourites on home soil, with the model giving them a 57% chance of victory.

57%
Canada
18%
Draw
25%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
Model fair odds
Canada
1.75
Draw
5.56
Bosnia & Herzegovina
4.00

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Canada
57%
Draw
18%
Bosnia & Herzegovina
25%
Elo rating: 1830 vs 1700 (+130)
Recent form: DWDDW vs DDDDD
Host advantage: Yes — Canada at home
Model verdict: 57% / 18% / 25%
Most likely scores
Canada 1–0 (13%)
Canada 2–0 (12%)
Draw 1–1 (11%)
Canada 2–1 (10%)
Why Canada are favourites (57%)
  • Canada carry the higher Elo rating (+130 points)
  • Host-nation advantage — Canada playing at home
  • Canada unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D)
  • Bosnia & Herzegovina unbeaten in their last five (5D)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 57% / 18% / 25% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Canada are expected to control possession and territory, while Bosnia & Herzegovina will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Canada goal would force Bosnia & Herzegovina to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: Canada 1.8 · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.8

Quick stats

MetricCanadaBosnia & Herzegovina
Elo rating18301700
Last 5 record2W 3D5D
Goals last 564
Goals conceded last 534
Clean sheets last 531

Canada — last 5

  • Dv Rep. Of Ireland11
  • Wv Uzbekistan20
  • Dv Tunisia00
  • Dv Iceland22
  • Wv Guatemala10

Bosnia & Herzegovina — last 5

  • D@ Panama11
  • Dv FYR Macedonia00
  • Dv Italy11
  • D@ Wales11
  • D@ Austria11

Head to head

No recent meetings on record between these sides.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.