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WORLD CUP 2026 · Friday, 12 June 2026 at 03:00 BST
South Korea
2 – 1
Czechia

Match preview

South Korea are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 52%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Czechia a way in.

52%
South Korea
20%
Draw
28%
Czechia
Model fair odds
South Korea
1.92
Draw
5.00
Czechia
3.57

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

South Korea
52%
Draw
20%
Czechia
28%
Elo rating: 1793 vs 1660 (+133)
Recent form: LLWWW vs LDLWW
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 52% / 20% / 28%
Most likely scores
South Korea 1–0 (13%)
Draw 1–1 (11%)
South Korea 2–0 (11%)
South Korea 2–1 (10%)
Why South Korea are favourites (52%)
  • South Korea carry the higher Elo rating (+133 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • South Korea won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
  • Czechia mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 52% / 20% / 28% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

South Korea are expected to control possession and territory, while Czechia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early South Korea goal would force Czechia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: South Korea 1.7 · Czechia 0.9

Quick stats

MetricSouth KoreaCzechia
Elo rating17931660
Last 5 record3W 2L2W 1D 2L
Goals last 587
Goals conceded last 538
Clean sheets last 520

South Korea — last 5

  • L@ South Africa01
  • L@ Mexico01
  • Wv Czechia21
  • Wv El Salvador10
  • Wv Trinidad and Tobago50

Czechia — last 5

  • Lv Mexico03
  • Dv South Africa11
  • L@ South Korea12
  • Wv Guatemala31
  • Wv Kosovo21

Head to head

12 Jun 2026
South Korea
21
Czechia

Confirmed lineups

South Korea · 3-4-2-1
  1. 1Kim Seung-Gyu G
  2. 2Lee Han-Beom D
  3. 4Kim Min-Jae D
  4. 3Lee Gi-Hyuk D
  5. 22Seol Young-Woo M
  6. 6Hwang In-Beom M
  7. 8Paik Seung-Ho M
  8. 13Lee Tae-Seok M
  9. 19Lee Kang-In F
  10. 10Lee Jae-Sung F
  11. 7Son Heung-Min F
Czechia · 3-4-2-1
  1. 1M. Kovar G
  2. 6S. Chaloupek D
  3. 4R. Hranac D
  4. 7L. Krejci D
  5. 5V. Coufal M
  6. 22T. Soucek M
  7. 24A. Sojka M
  8. 20J. Zeleny M
  9. 17L. Provod F
  10. 15P. Sulc F
  11. 10P. Schick F

Key matchups

Lee Kang-In vs R. Hranac

South Korea's focal point in attack against the heart of Czechia's defence.

Hwang In-Beom vs T. Soucek

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

L. Provod vs Kim Min-Jae

Czechia's main outlet — how South Korea's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.