Match preview
Croatia are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 56%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Ghana a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Croatia are favourites (56%)
- Croatia carry the higher Elo rating (+193 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Ghana mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 56% / 18% / 26% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Croatia are expected to control possession and territory, while Ghana will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Croatia goal would force Ghana to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Croatia 1.8 · Ghana 0.8
Quick stats
Croatia — last 5
No recent data yet.
Ghana — last 5
- L@ Colombia0–1
- L@ Croatia1–2
- D@ England0–0
- Wv Panama1–0
- D@ Wales1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1D. Livakovic G
- 2J. Stanisic D
- 6J. Sutalo D
- 3M. Pongracic D
- 14I. Perisic D
- 10L. Modric M
- 8M. Kovacic M
- 13N. Vlasic M
- 17P. Sucic M
- 16M. Baturina M
- 11A. Budimir F
- 16B. Asare
- 26M. Senaya D
- 4J. Adjetey D
- 23D. Luckassen D
- 14G. Mensah D
- 5T. Partey M
- 11A. Semenyo M
- 15E. Owusu M
- 8K. Sibo M
- 22K. Sulemana M
- 9J. Ayew F
Key matchups
Croatia's focal point in attack against the heart of Ghana's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Ghana's main outlet — how Croatia's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.