Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-40 points). Recent form fractionally favours Algeria.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-40 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Algeria won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Austria mixed recent form (2W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 39% / 24% / 37% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Algeria 1.3 · Austria 1.3
Quick stats
Algeria — last 5
- Dv Austria3–3
- W@ Jordan2–1
- L@ Argentina0–3
- W@ Bolivia4–0
- W@ Netherlands1–0
Austria — last 5
- D@ Algeria3–3
- L@ Argentina0–2
- Wv Jordan3–1
- Dv Guatemala?–?
- Wv Tunisia1–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16O. Benbot G
- 17R. Belghali D
- 2A. Mandi D
- 21R. Bensebaini D
- 13J. Hadjam D
- 10F. Chaibi M
- 19N. Bentaleb M
- 7R. Mahrez M
- 22I. Maza M
- 8H. Aouar M
- 9A. Gouiri F
- 1A. Schlager G
- 5S. Posch D
- 15P. Lienhart D
- 8D. Alaba D
- 16P. Mwene D
- 6N. Seiwald M
- 4X. Schlager M
- 20K. Laimer M
- 18R. Schmid M
- 9M. Sabitzer M
- 7M. Arnautovic F
Key matchups
Algeria's focal point in attack against the heart of Austria's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Austria's main outlet — how Algeria's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.