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WORLD CUP 2026 · Sunday, 28 June 2026 at 03:00 BST
Algeria
3 – 3
Austria

Match preview

Austria carry the rating edge but it's not large. Either side could nick it.

38%
Algeria
24%
Draw
38%
Austria
Model fair odds
Algeria
2.63
Draw
4.17
Austria
2.63

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Algeria
38%
Draw
24%
Austria
38%
Elo rating: 1763 vs 1811 (-48)
Recent form: — vs LDLW
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 38% / 24% / 38%
Most likely scores
Draw 1–1 (13%)
Austria 1–0 (10%)
Algeria 1–0 (10%)
Austria 2–1 (8%)
Why Algeria are favourites (38%)
  • Austria carry the higher Elo rating (48 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • Austria mixed recent form (1W 1D 2L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 38% / 24% / 38% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Algeria should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.

Expected goals: Algeria 1.3 · Austria 1.3

Quick stats

MetricAlgeriaAustria
Elo rating17631811
Last 5 record1W 1D 2L
Goals last 506
Goals conceded last 509
Clean sheets last 500

Algeria — last 5

No recent data yet.

Austria — last 5

  • L@ Spain03
  • D@ Algeria33
  • L@ Argentina02
  • Wv Jordan31
  • Dv Guatemala??

Head to head

28 Jun 2026
Algeria
33
Austria

Confirmed lineups

Algeria · 4-2-3-1
  1. 16O. Benbot G
  2. 17R. Belghali D
  3. 2A. Mandi D
  4. 21R. Bensebaini D
  5. 13J. Hadjam D
  6. 10F. Chaibi M
  7. 19N. Bentaleb M
  8. 7R. Mahrez F
  9. 22I. Maza M
  10. 8H. Aouar M
  11. 9A. Gouiri F
Austria · 4-2-3-1
  1. 1A. Schlager G
  2. 5S. Posch D
  3. 15P. Lienhart D
  4. 8D. Alaba D
  5. 16P. Mwene D
  6. 6N. Seiwald M
  7. 4X. Schlager M
  8. 20K. Laimer M
  9. 18R. Schmid M
  10. 9M. Sabitzer M
  11. 7M. Arnautovic F

Key matchups

R. Mahrez vs P. Lienhart

Algeria's focal point in attack against the heart of Austria's defence.

N. Bentaleb vs K. Laimer

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

M. Arnautovic vs A. Mandi

Austria's main outlet — how Algeria's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.