Match preview
France enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 61% chance. Norway likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (61%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (188 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Norway mixed recent form (1W 4L)
- France won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 22% / 17% / 61% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Norway will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early France goal would force Norway to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Norway 0.7 · France 1.9
Quick stats
Norway — last 5
- L@ Portugal1–2
- L@ Wales1–2
- Lv Portugal1–2
- Wv Denmark3–2
- Lv England1–2
France — last 5
- Wv Belgium4–1
- Dv Italy1–1
- W@ Belgium1–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- Lv England4–6
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 13E. Selvik G
- 14F. Aursnes D
- 25H. Falchener D
- 4L. Ostigard D
- 15F. Bjorkan D
- 18K. Thorstvedt M
- 6P. Berg M
- 19T. Aasgaard M
- 22O. Bobb F
- 11J. Larsen F
- 21A. Schjelderup F
- 16M. Maignan G
- 5J. Kounde D
- 4D. Upamecano D
- 26M. Lacroix D
- 19T. Hernandez D
- 8A. Tchouameni M
- 6M. Kone M
- 7O. Dembele M
- 11M. Olise M
- 20D. Doue M
- 10K. Mbappe F
Key matchups
Norway's focal point in attack against the heart of France's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
France's main outlet — how Norway's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.