Match preview
Belgium enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 75% chance. New Zealand likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (75%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (390 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- New Zealand winless in their last five (1D 4L)
- Belgium unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 10% / 15% / 75% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while New Zealand will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Belgium goal would force New Zealand to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: New Zealand 0.5 · Belgium 2.1
Quick stats
New Zealand — last 5
- Lv Belgium1–5
- Lv Egypt1–3
- D@ Iran2–2
- L@ England0–1
- L@ Haiti0–4
Belgium — last 5
- Wv Senegal3–2
- W@ New Zealand5–1
- Dv Iran0–0
- Dv Egypt1–1
- Wv Tunisia5–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Max Crocombe G
- 2Tim Payne D
- 16Finn Surman D
- 4Tyler Bindon D
- 13Liberato Cacace D
- 6Joe Bell M
- 8Marko Stamenić M
- 10Sarpreet Singh M
- 23Ryan Thomas M
- 11Elijah Just M
- 9Chris Wood F
- 1Thibaut Courtois G
- 21Timothy Castagne D
- 4Brandon Mechele D
- 3Arthur Theate D
- 5Maxim De Cuyper D
- 8Youri Tielemans M
- 20Hans Vanaken M
- 11Jérémy Doku M
- 7Kevin De Bruyne M
- 10Leandro Trossard M
- 17Charles De Ketelaere F
Key matchups
New Zealand's focal point in attack against the heart of Belgium's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Belgium's main outlet — how New Zealand's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.