Match preview
Belgium enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 60% chance. New Zealand likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (60%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (410 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- New Zealand mixed recent form (1W 2D 1L)
- Belgium mixed recent form (2W 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 23% / 17% / 60% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while New Zealand will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Belgium goal would force New Zealand to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: New Zealand 0.7 · Belgium 1.9
Quick stats
New Zealand — last 5
- L@ Japan1–2
- D@ Panama1–1
- W@ China3–0
- D@ Palestine2–2
- D@ Turkmenistan?–?
Belgium — last 5
- L@ France1–4
- Wv Türkiye3–0
- Lv France0–1
- W@ Italy2–0
- L@ Spain1–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1T. Courtois G
- 21T. Castagne D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 3A. Theate D
- 5M. De Cuyper D
- 8Y. Tielemans M
- 20H. Vanaken M
- 11J. Doku M
- 7K. De Bruyne M
- 10L. Trossard M
- 17C. De Ketelaere F
- 1M. Crocombe G
- 2T. Payne D
- 16F. Surman D
- 4T. Bindon D
- 13L. Cacace D
- 6J. Bell M
- 8M. Stamenic M
- 10S. Singh M
- 23R. Thomas M
- 11E. Just M
- 9C. Wood F
Key matchups
New Zealand's focal point in attack against the heart of Belgium's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Belgium's main outlet — how New Zealand's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.