Match preview
Belgium enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 74% chance. New Zealand likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (74%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (410 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- New Zealand winless in their last five (1D 4L)
- Belgium won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 11% / 15% / 74% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while New Zealand will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Belgium goal would force New Zealand to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: New Zealand 0.5 · Belgium 2.1
Quick stats
New Zealand — last 5
- Lv Belgium1–5
- Lv Egypt1–3
- D@ Iran2–2
- L@ England0–1
- L@ Haiti0–4
Belgium — last 5
- L@ Spain1–2
- W@ USA4–1
- Wv Senegal3–2
- W@ New Zealand5–1
- Dv Iran0–0
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Confirmed lineups
- 1T. Courtois G
- 21T. Castagne D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 3A. Theate D
- 5M. De Cuyper D
- 8Y. Tielemans M
- 20H. Vanaken M
- 11J. Doku M
- 7K. De Bruyne M
- 10L. Trossard M
- 17C. De Ketelaere F
- 1M. Crocombe G
- 2T. Payne D
- 16F. Surman D
- 4T. Bindon D
- 13L. Cacace D
- 6J. Bell M
- 8M. Stamenic M
- 10S. Singh M
- 23R. Thomas M
- 11E. Just M
- 9C. Wood F
Key matchups
New Zealand's focal point in attack against the heart of Belgium's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Belgium's main outlet — how New Zealand's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.