Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-8 points). Recent form fractionally favours Egypt.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-8 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Egypt mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Iran winless in their last five (3D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 41% / 23% / 36% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Egypt 1.4 · Iran 1.2
Quick stats
Egypt — last 5
- Lv South Africa0–1
- W@ South Sudan5–0
- Dv Angola0–0
- L@ Argentina2–3
- D@ Australia1–1
Iran — last 5
- L@ Russia0–2
- L@ Uzbekistan1–3
- D@ Egypt1–1
- D@ Belgium0–0
- Dv New Zealand2–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23M. Shobeir G
- 3M. Hany D
- 5R. Rabia D
- 6M. Abdelmonem D
- 13A. Fatouh D
- 17M. Lasheen M
- 21M. Saber M
- 8E. Ashour M
- 10M. Salah M
- 7Trezeguet M
- 11M. Ziko F
- 1A. Beiranvand G
- 23R. Rezaeian D
- 13H. Kanaani D
- 4S. Khalilzadeh D
- 19A. Nemati
- 5M. Mohammadi D
- 14S. Ghoddos M
- 21M. Ghorbani M
- 6S. Ezatolahi M
- 8M. Mohebi M
- 9M. Taremi F
Key matchups
Egypt's focal point in attack against the heart of Iran's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Iran's main outlet — how Egypt's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.