Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-40 points). Recent form fractionally favours Iran.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-40 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Egypt mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Iran won 3 of their last five (3W 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 36% / 23% / 41% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Egypt 1.2 · Iran 1.4
Quick stats
Egypt — last 5
- L@ Brazil1–2
- Wv Russia1–0
- D@ Spain0–0
- W@ Saudi Arabia4–0
- Dv Nigeria0–0
Iran — last 5
- Dv Grenada?–?
- Wv Mali2–0
- Wv Gambia3–1
- W@ Costa Rica5–0
- Lv Nigeria1–2
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.