Match preview
Netherlands enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 69% chance. Tunisia likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Netherlands are favourites (69%)
- Netherlands carry the higher Elo rating (366 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Tunisia winless in their last five (2D 2L)
- Netherlands unbeaten in their last five (2W 3D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 16% / 15% / 69% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Netherlands are expected to control possession and territory, while Tunisia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Netherlands goal would force Tunisia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Tunisia 0.5 · Netherlands 2.1
Quick stats
Tunisia — last 5
- Dv Mali?–?
- Dv Botswana2–2
- Dv Uganda1–1
- Lv Netherlands1–3
- Lv Japan0–4
Netherlands — last 5
- Wv Serbia2–1
- D@ Greece2–2
- W@ Serbia2–1
- Dv Germany1–1
- Dv Morocco1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1B. Verbruggen G
- 22D. Dumfries D
- 6J. P. van Hecke D
- 4V. van Dijk D
- 5N. Ake D
- 8R. Gravenberch M
- 21F. de Jong M
- 14T. Reijnders M
- 18D. Malen F
- 19B. Brobbey F
- 11C. Gakpo F
- 16A. Dahmen G
- 20Y. Valery D
- 3M. Talbi D
- 17E. Skhiri D
- 21M. Ben Hamida D
- 2A. Abdi D
- 25A. Slimane M
- 11I. Gharbi M
- 13R. Khedira M
- 10H. Mejbri M
- 9H. Mastouri F
Key matchups
Tunisia's focal point in attack against the heart of Netherlands's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Netherlands's main outlet — how Tunisia's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.