Match preview
Netherlands enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 75% chance. Tunisia likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Netherlands are favourites (75%)
- Netherlands carry the higher Elo rating (366 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Tunisia winless in their last five (5L)
- Netherlands unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 10% / 15% / 75% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Netherlands are expected to control possession and territory, while Tunisia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Netherlands goal would force Tunisia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Tunisia 0.5 · Netherlands 2.1
Quick stats
Tunisia — last 5
- Lv Netherlands1–3
- Lv Japan0–4
- L@ Sweden1–5
- L@ Belgium0–5
- L@ Austria0–1
Netherlands — last 5
- Dv Morocco1–1
- W@ Tunisia3–1
- Wv Sweden5–1
- Dv Japan2–2
- Wv Uzbekistan2–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.