Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-28 points). Recent form fractionally favours Paraguay.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-28 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Paraguay mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Australia winless in their last five (3D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 43% / 22% / 35% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Paraguay 1.5 · Australia 1.1
Quick stats
Paraguay — last 5
- W@ Colombia1–0
- W@ Bolivia2–0
- Lv France0–1
- D@ Germany1–1
- Dv Australia0–0
Australia — last 5
- Lv Brazil2–4
- Dv Brazil1–1
- Dv Egypt1–1
- D@ Paraguay0–0
- L@ USA0–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 12O. Gill G
- 4J. Caceres D
- 2G. Velazquez D
- 15G. Gomez D
- 3O. Alderete D
- 26A. Maidana D
- 8D. Gomez M
- 14A. Cubas M
- 23M. Galarza M
- 21G. Avalos F
- 19J. Enciso F
- 18P. Beach G
- 3A. Circati D
- 19H. Souttar D
- 25L. Herrington D
- 5J. Bos M
- 13A. O'Neill M
- 22J. Irvine M
- 16A. Behich M
- 20C. Volpato F
- 8C. Metcalfe F
- 17N. Irankunda F
Key matchups
Paraguay's focal point in attack against the heart of Australia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Australia's main outlet — how Paraguay's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.