Match preview
Ivory Coast enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 49% chance. Curaçao likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Ivory Coast are favourites (49%)
- Ivory Coast carry the higher Elo rating (122 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Curaçao mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 30% / 21% / 49% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Ivory Coast are expected to control possession and territory, while Curaçao will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Ivory Coast goal would force Curaçao to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Curaçao 1 · Ivory Coast 1.6
Quick stats
Curaçao — last 5
- Lv Ivory Coast0–2
- D@ Ecuador0–0
- L@ Germany1–7
- Wv Aruba4–0
- L@ Scotland1–4
Ivory Coast — last 5
No recent data yet.
Head to head
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.