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WORLD CUP 2026 · Thursday, 25 June 2026 at 21:00 BST
Curaçao
0 – 2
Ivory Coast

Match preview

Ivory Coast enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 52% chance. Curaçao likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.

28%
Curaçao
20%
Draw
52%
Ivory Coast
Model fair odds
Curaçao
3.57
Draw
5.00
Ivory Coast
1.92

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Curaçao
28%
Draw
20%
Ivory Coast
52%
Elo rating: 1663 vs 1785 (-122)
Recent form: LDLWL vs LWLWW
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 28% / 20% / 52%
Most likely scores
Ivory Coast 1–0 (12%)
Draw 1–1 (12%)
Ivory Coast 2–0 (10%)
Ivory Coast 2–1 (10%)
Why Ivory Coast are favourites (52%)
  • Ivory Coast carry the higher Elo rating (122 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • Curaçao mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
  • Ivory Coast won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 28% / 20% / 52% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Ivory Coast are expected to control possession and territory, while Curaçao will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Ivory Coast goal would force Curaçao to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: Curaçao 0.9 · Ivory Coast 1.7

Quick stats

MetricCuraçaoIvory Coast
Elo rating16631785
Last 5 record1W 1D 3L3W 2L
Goals last 567
Goals conceded last 5134
Clean sheets last 523

Curaçao — last 5

  • Lv Ivory Coast02
  • D@ Ecuador00
  • L@ Germany17
  • Wv Aruba40
  • L@ Scotland14

Ivory Coast — last 5

  • Lv Norway12
  • W@ Curaçao20
  • L@ Germany12
  • Wv Ecuador10
  • W@ Philadelphia Union II20

Head to head

25 Jun 2026
Curaçao
02
Ivory Coast

Confirmed lineups

Curaçao · 5-4-1
  1. 1E. Room G
  2. 20J. Brenet D
  3. 3J. Gaari D
  4. 18A. Obispo D
  5. 24D. Fonville D
  6. 5S. Floranus D
  7. 21T. Chong M
  8. 8L. Comenencia M
  9. 10L. Bacuna M
  10. 7J. Bacuna M
  11. 9J. Locadia F
Ivory Coast · 4-2-3-1
  1. 1Y. Fofana G
  2. 17G. Doue D
  3. 7O. Kossounou D
  4. 2O. Diomande D
  5. 13C. Operi D
  6. 18I. Sangare M
  7. 8F. Kessie M
  8. 15A. Diallo M
  9. 19N. Pepe M
  10. 11Y. Diomande M
  11. 9A. Bonny F

Key matchups

J. Locadia vs O. Kossounou

Curaçao's focal point in attack against the heart of Ivory Coast's defence.

L. Comenencia vs A. Diallo

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

A. Bonny vs A. Obispo

Ivory Coast's main outlet — how Curaçao's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.