Match preview
Ivory Coast enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 44% chance. Curaçao likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Ivory Coast are favourites (44%)
- Ivory Coast carry the higher Elo rating (122 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Curaçao won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Ivory Coast won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 34% / 22% / 44% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Ivory Coast are expected to control possession and territory, while Curaçao will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Ivory Coast goal would force Curaçao to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Curaçao 1.1 · Ivory Coast 1.5
Quick stats
Curaçao — last 5
- D@ Trinidad and Tobago1–1
- Wv Trinidad and Tobago1–0
- Wv Nicaragua6–1
- W@ Costa Rica4–3
- Lv Ivory Coast0–2
Ivory Coast — last 5
- Lv Cameroon0–1
- W@ Somalia2–0
- Wv Ghana2–0
- Lv Norway1–2
- W@ Curaçao2–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1E. Room G
- 20J. Brenet D
- 3J. Gaari D
- 18A. Obispo D
- 24D. Fonville D
- 5S. Floranus D
- 21T. Chong M
- 8L. Comenencia M
- 10L. Bacuna M
- 7J. Bacuna M
- 9J. Locadia F
- 1Y. Fofana G
- 17G. Doue D
- 7O. Kossounou D
- 2O. Diomande D
- 13C. Operi D
- 18I. Sangare M
- 8F. Kessie M
- 15A. Diallo M
- 19N. Pepe M
- 11Y. Diomande M
- 9A. Bonny F
Key matchups
Curaçao's focal point in attack against the heart of Ivory Coast's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Ivory Coast's main outlet — how Curaçao's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.