Match preview
Uruguay are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 59%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Cape Verde Islands a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Uruguay are favourites (59%)
- Uruguay carry the higher Elo rating (+168 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Uruguay mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Cape Verde Islands winless in their last five (2D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 59% / 18% / 23% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Uruguay are expected to control possession and territory, while Cape Verde Islands will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Uruguay goal would force Cape Verde Islands to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Uruguay 1.9 · Cape Verde Islands 0.7
Quick stats
Uruguay — last 5
- W@ India6–1
- W@ South Korea4–1
- L@ Japan1–3
- Lv Spain0–1
- Dv Cape Verde Islands2–2
Cape Verde Islands — last 5
- Lv Rwanda1–2
- L@ Mali1–3
- L@ Argentina2–3
- Dv Saudi Arabia0–0
- D@ Uruguay2–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23F. Muslera G
- 13G. Varela D
- 3S. Caceres D
- 16M. Olivera D
- 25J. Sanabria D
- 5M. Ugarte M
- 14A. Canobbio M
- 6R. Bentancur M
- 8F. Valverde M
- 20M. Araujo M
- 21F. Vinas F
- 1Vozinha G
- 22S. Moreira D
- 4R. Lopes D
- 3D. Borges D
- 13S. Lopes Cabral D
- 6K. Lenini M
- 20R. Mendes M
- 18T. Arcanjo M
- 10J. Monteiro M
- 11G. Rodrigues M
- 9Benchimol F
Key matchups
Uruguay's focal point in attack against the heart of Cape Verde Islands's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Cape Verde Islands's main outlet — how Uruguay's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.