Match preview
Egypt enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 49% chance. New Zealand likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Egypt are favourites (49%)
- Egypt carry the higher Elo rating (199 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- New Zealand mixed recent form (1W 2D 1L)
- Egypt mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 30% / 21% / 49% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Egypt are expected to control possession and territory, while New Zealand will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Egypt goal would force New Zealand to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: New Zealand 1 · Egypt 1.6
Quick stats
New Zealand — last 5
- L@ Japan1–2
- D@ Panama1–1
- W@ China3–0
- D@ Palestine2–2
- D@ Turkmenistan?–?
Egypt — last 5
- Lv South Africa0–1
- W@ South Sudan5–0
- Dv Angola0–0
- L@ Argentina2–3
- D@ Australia1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23M. Shobeir G
- 3M. Hany D
- 2Y. Ibrahim D
- 14H. Fathy D
- 13A. Fatouh D
- 19M. Attia M
- 17M. Lasheen M
- 11M. Ziko M
- 10M. Salah M
- 8E. Ashour M
- 22O. Marmoush F
- 1M. Crocombe G
- 2T. Payne D
- 16F. Surman D
- 5M. Boxall D
- 13L. Cacace D
- 6J. Bell M
- 8M. Stamenic M
- 20C. McCowatt M
- 10S. Singh M
- 11E. Just M
- 9C. Wood F
Key matchups
New Zealand's focal point in attack against the heart of Egypt's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Egypt's main outlet — how New Zealand's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.