Match preview
Belgium are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 57%. Only a poor recent run (one-from-five) gives Iran a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (57%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (+203 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Belgium mixed recent form (2W 3L)
- Iran winless in their last five (3D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 57% / 18% / 25% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while Iran will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Belgium goal would force Iran to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Belgium 1.8 · Iran 0.8
Quick stats
Belgium — last 5
- L@ France1–4
- Wv Türkiye3–0
- Lv France0–1
- W@ Italy2–0
- L@ Spain1–2
Iran — last 5
- L@ Russia0–2
- L@ Uzbekistan1–3
- D@ Egypt1–1
- D@ Belgium0–0
- Dv New Zealand2–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1T. Courtois G
- 15T. Meunier D
- 25N. Ngoy D
- 4B. Mechele D
- 5M. De Cuyper D
- 23N. Raskin M
- 8Y. Tielemans M
- 22A. Saelemaekers M
- 7K. De Bruyne M
- 10L. Trossard M
- 9R. Lukaku F
- 1A. Beiranvand G
- 2S. Hardani D
- 13H. Kanaani D
- 4S. Khalilzadeh D
- 19A. Nemati
- 3E. Hajsafi D
- 23R. Rezaeian M
- 14S. Ghoddos M
- 6S. Ezatolahi M
- 8M. Mohebi M
- 9M. Taremi F
Key matchups
Belgium's focal point in attack against the heart of Iran's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Iran's main outlet — how Belgium's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.