Match preview
Belgium are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 58%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Iran a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (58%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (+190 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Belgium unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Iran won 3 of their last five (3W 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 58% / 18% / 24% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while Iran will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Belgium goal would force Iran to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Belgium 1.8 · Iran 0.8
Quick stats
Belgium — last 5
- Wv Tunisia5–0
- W@ Croatia2–0
- D@ Mexico1–1
- W@ USA5–2
- Wv Liechtenstein7–0
Iran — last 5
- Dv Grenada?–?
- Wv Mali2–0
- Wv Gambia3–1
- W@ Costa Rica5–0
- Lv Nigeria1–2
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.