Match preview
Germany are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 51%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Ivory Coast a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Germany are favourites (51%)
- Germany carry the higher Elo rating (+182 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Germany mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
- Ivory Coast won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 51% / 20% / 29% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Germany are expected to control possession and territory, while Ivory Coast will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Germany goal would force Ivory Coast to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Germany 1.7 · Ivory Coast 0.9
Quick stats
Germany — last 5
- D@ Greece0–0
- Wv Serbia2–0
- Lv Greece0–1
- D@ Netherlands1–1
- Dv Paraguay1–1
Ivory Coast — last 5
- Lv Cameroon0–1
- W@ Somalia2–0
- Wv Ghana2–0
- Lv Norway1–2
- W@ Curaçao2–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1M. Neuer G
- 6J. Kimmich D
- 4J. Tah D
- 15N. Schlotterbeck D
- 18N. Brown D
- 23F. Nmecha M
- 5A. Pavlovic M
- 19L. Sane M
- 10J. Musiala M
- 17F. Wirtz M
- 7K. Havertz F
- 1Y. Fofana G
- 5W. Singo D
- 7O. Kossounou D
- 20E. Agbadou D
- 3G. Konan D
- 18I. Sangare M
- 15A. Diallo M
- 8F. Kessie M
- 26C. Inao Oulai M
- 11Y. Diomande M
- 9A. Bonny F
Key matchups
Germany's focal point in attack against the heart of Ivory Coast's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Ivory Coast's main outlet — how Germany's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.