Match preview
Mexico are favourites on ratings but South Korea have been the in-form side. Closer than the badges suggest.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Mexico are favourites (45%)
- Mexico carry the higher Elo rating (+118 points)
- Host-nation advantage — Mexico playing at home
- Mexico winless in their last five (2D 3L)
- South Korea mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 45% / 22% / 33% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Mexico should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Mexico 1.5 · South Korea 1.1
Quick stats
Mexico — last 5
- Lv Chile0–2
- L@ USA0–3
- Dv Peru1–1
- Dv Colombia1–1
- Lv England2–3
South Korea — last 5
- Wv Uzbekistan2–0
- Dv Venezuela0–0
- Lv Uruguay1–4
- Wv Ecuador3–0
- L@ South Africa0–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1R. Rangel G
- 2J. Sanchez D
- 4E. Alvarez D
- 5J. Vasquez D
- 23J. Gallardo D
- 26B. Gutierrez M
- 6E. Lira M
- 7L. Romo M
- 25R. Alvarado F
- 9R. Jimenez F
- 16J. Quinones F
- 1Kim Seung-Gyu G
- 2Lee Han-Beom D
- 4Kim Min-Jae D
- 3Lee Gi-Hyuk D
- 15Kim Moon-Hwan M
- 6Hwang In-Beom M
- 8Paik Seung-Ho M
- 22Seol Young-Woo M
- 19Lee Kang-In F
- 10Lee Jae-Sung F
- 7Son Heung-Min F
Key matchups
Mexico's focal point in attack against the heart of South Korea's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
South Korea's main outlet — how Mexico's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.