Match preview
Canada enter as clear favourites on home soil, with the model giving them a 56% chance of victory.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Canada are favourites (56%)
- Canada carry the higher Elo rating (+185 points)
- Host-nation advantage — Canada playing at home
- Canada won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Qatar mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 56% / 19% / 25% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Canada are expected to control possession and territory, while Qatar will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Canada goal would force Qatar to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Canada 1.8 · Qatar 0.8
Quick stats
Canada — last 5
- L@ USA0–1
- Wv Peru2–0
- Wv Chile1–0
- Lv Morocco0–3
- W@ South Africa1–0
Qatar — last 5
- D@ Saudi Arabia0–0
- D@ United Arab Emirates1–1
- W@ Yemen1–0
- Wv Bahrain2–0
- L@ Bosnia & Herzegovina1–3
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Crepeau G
- 2A. Johnston D
- 4L. De Fougerolles D
- 13D. Cornelius D
- 22R. Laryea D
- 17T. Buchanan M
- 8I. Kone M
- 7S. Eustaquio M
- 20A. Ahmed M
- 10J. David F
- 9C. Larin F
- 1M. Abunada G
- 13A. Al Oui D
- 2Pedro Miguel D
- 16B. Khoukhi D
- 14H. Al Amin D
- 5J. Gaber M
- 23A. O. Madibo M
- 4I. Laye M
- 8Edmilson Junior F
- 15Y. Abdurisag F
- 11A. Afif F
Key matchups
Canada's focal point in attack against the heart of Qatar's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Qatar's main outlet — how Canada's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.