Match preview
Colombia enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 73% chance. Uzbekistan likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Colombia are favourites (73%)
- Colombia carry the higher Elo rating (313 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Uzbekistan winless in their last five (5L)
- Colombia unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 12% / 15% / 73% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Colombia are expected to control possession and territory, while Uzbekistan will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Colombia goal would force Uzbekistan to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Uzbekistan 0.5 · Colombia 2.1
Quick stats
Uzbekistan — last 5
- L@ Congo DR1–3
- L@ Portugal0–5
- Lv Colombia1–3
- L@ Netherlands1–2
- L@ Canada0–2
Colombia — last 5
- Dv Portugal0–0
- Wv Congo DR1–0
- W@ Uzbekistan3–1
- Wv Jordan2–0
- Wv Costa Rica3–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1U. Yusupov G
- 2A. Khusanov D
- 18A. Abdullaev D
- 5R. Ashurmatov D
- 24B. Karimov M
- 6A. Mozgovoy M
- 7O. Shukurov M
- 13S. Nasrullaev M
- 22A. Fayzullaev F
- 11O. Urunov F
- 14E. Shomurodov F
- 12C. Vargas G
- 2D. Munoz D
- 23D. Sanchez D
- 3J. Lucumi D
- 17J. Mojica D
- 14G. Puerta M
- 16J. Lerma M
- 11J. Arias M
- 10J. Rodriguez F
- 25L. Suarez F
- 7L. Diaz F
Key matchups
Uzbekistan's focal point in attack against the heart of Colombia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Colombia's main outlet — how Uzbekistan's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.