Match preview
Colombia enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 63% chance. Uzbekistan likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Colombia are favourites (63%)
- Colombia carry the higher Elo rating (324 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Uzbekistan mixed recent form (2W 3L)
- Colombia mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 21% / 16% / 63% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Colombia are expected to control possession and territory, while Uzbekistan will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Colombia goal would force Uzbekistan to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Uzbekistan 0.6 · Colombia 2
Quick stats
Uzbekistan — last 5
- L@ South Korea0–2
- Wv Syria4–1
- Wv Iran3–1
- L@ Congo DR1–3
- L@ Portugal0–5
Colombia — last 5
- Wv Peru2–0
- Lv Paraguay0–1
- D@ Mexico1–1
- D@ Switzerland0–0
- Wv Ghana1–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1U. Yusupov G
- 2A. Khusanov D
- 18A. Abdullaev D
- 5R. Ashurmatov D
- 24B. Karimov M
- 6A. Mozgovoy M
- 7O. Shukurov M
- 13S. Nasrullaev M
- 22A. Fayzullaev F
- 11O. Urunov F
- 14E. Shomurodov F
- 12C. Vargas G
- 2D. Munoz D
- 23D. Sanchez D
- 3J. Lucumi D
- 17J. Mojica D
- 14G. Puerta M
- 16J. Lerma M
- 11J. Arias M
- 10J. Rodriguez F
- 25L. Suarez F
- 7L. Diaz F
Key matchups
Uzbekistan's focal point in attack against the heart of Colombia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Colombia's main outlet — how Uzbekistan's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.