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WORLD CUP 2026 · Thursday, 18 June 2026 at 00:00 BST
Ghana
1 – 0
Panama

Match preview

Ghana are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 53%. Only a poor recent run (one-from-five) gives Panama a way in.

53%
Ghana
19%
Draw
28%
Panama
Model fair odds
Ghana
1.89
Draw
5.26
Panama
3.57

Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.

Ghana
53%
Draw
19%
Panama
28%
Elo rating: 1754 vs 1609 (+145)
Recent form: LDWDL vs LLLDW
Host advantage: Neutral venue
Model verdict: 53% / 19% / 28%
Most likely scores
Ghana 1–0 (13%)
Draw 1–1 (11%)
Ghana 2–0 (11%)
Ghana 2–1 (10%)
Why Ghana are favourites (53%)
  • Ghana carry the higher Elo rating (+145 points)
  • Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
  • Ghana mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
  • Panama mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
  • Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)

These factors combine to produce the 53% / 19% / 28% verdict above.

Expected match pattern

Ghana are expected to control possession and territory, while Panama will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Ghana goal would force Panama to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.

Expected goals: Ghana 1.7 · Panama 0.9

Quick stats

MetricGhanaPanama
Elo rating17541609
Last 5 record1W 2D 2L1W 1D 3L
Goals last 535
Goals conceded last 557
Clean sheets last 520

Ghana — last 5

  • L@ Croatia12
  • D@ England00
  • Wv Panama10
  • D@ Wales11
  • L@ Mexico02

Panama — last 5

  • Lv England02
  • Lv Croatia01
  • L@ Ghana01
  • Dv Bosnia & Herzegovina11
  • Wv Dominican Republic42

Head to head

17 Jun 2026
Ghana
10
Panama

Confirmed lineups

Ghana · 4-4-1-1
  1. 1L. Ati Zigi G
  2. 26M. Senaya D
  3. 4J. Adjetey D
  4. 18J. Opoku D
  5. 14G. Mensah D
  6. 24E. Nuamah M
  7. 3C. Yirenkyi M
  8. 15E. Owusu M
  9. 11A. Semenyo M
  10. 22K. Sulemana F
  11. 9J. Ayew F
Panama · 3-4-3
  1. 22O. Mosquera G
  2. 13J. Ramos D
  3. 3J. Cordoba D
  4. 16A. Andrade D
  5. 23M. Murillo M
  6. 14C. Harvey M
  7. 11Y. Barcenas M
  8. 2C. Blackman M
  9. 6C. Martinez
  10. 18C. Waterman F
  11. 7J. Rodriguez F

Key matchups

K. Sulemana vs J. Cordoba

Ghana's focal point in attack against the heart of Panama's defence.

C. Yirenkyi vs C. Harvey

The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.

C. Waterman vs J. Adjetey

Panama's main outlet — how Ghana's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.

Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.